Maariv reader poll determines: How many mandates did Amsalem's interview cost Likud?

The words of Minister Dudi Amsalem, according to which he would help Gadi Eisenkot join Likud if he adopts the party's principles, aroused alertness among senior members of the movement and in the circle of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. At first, sources in the party wondered if these were the first signs of rebellion by Amsalem or an attempt to bring closer to Likud someone who is emerging as one of Netanyahu's main rivals in the elections.

However, after listening to the full interview that Amsalem gave to 103FM, the spirits calmed down. According to him, Eisenkot could have found his place in Likud had he not gone through the military path, which he described as an "incubator" that shaped his views and, according to him, distanced him from his original positions.

"Gadi Eisenkot ultimately grew up within the IDF. He grew up in a certain group that it is known what I think about - most of them, if not all, are leftists," said Amsalem. "I have sympathy for Gadi Eisenkot, but that is not the question. I would be happy if he came tomorrow and said: 'I adopt the lines of Likud, I am sobering up from the illusions regarding the Arabs. We understand after October 7 that they do not want us to live here, and it is not related to what is possible or not possible'."

Amsalem added that in such a case he would help Eisenkot join the party. "His natural place, if he had not grown up in the army, would with high probability have been within Likud," he said. Thereby he clarified that this is not an offer for immediate joining, but a move conditioned on a deep change in the political positions of the chairman of the Yashar party.

Alongside the words about Eisenkot, Amsalem also criticized the way internal procedures are conducted in Likud and clarified that the party does not belong to Netanyahu or any other person. "This is a party that does not belong to any one person, including the Prime Minister," he said. "Likud is a popular movement that was before the Prime Minister and will be after him and after me. Likud needs to understand this."

The statement initially aroused suspicion among sources in the movement that Amsalem seeks to undermine Netanyahu's status. However, later in the interview he expressed absolute support for the Prime Minister's candidacy and clarified that in his view there is no other person today suitable to lead the country. According to Amsalem, Netanyahu is "the only person who can be Prime Minister at this time." The unequivocal alignment by his side dispelled concerns among senior Likud members that his previous words signaled a distancing from the Prime Minister.

Eisenkot is looking for votes on the right

The background for the sensitivity in Likud is Eisenkot's attempt to expand the support for him beyond the center and left audiences and attract voters identified with the right. His main efforts are directed to the north of the country, to moshavim and settlements traditionally identified with the national camp, and not necessarily to voters in Tel Aviv who can also choose Naftali Bennett or Yair Golan.

Eisenkot often visits settlements like Dovev and Dalton and other areas where he identifies potential for transferring votes from block to block. In Likud, they monitor his activity and try to prevent the leakage of right-wing voters towards him.

One of the first campaign lines against him focuses on the claim that a government under his leadership will rely on Ra'am headed by Mansour Abbas. From Likud's perspective, this is a repetition of a message that has already been used in the past against Netanyahu's rivals: presenting a vote for a candidate from the center as a step that will ultimately lead to the establishment of a government relying on an Arab party.

Leading among opposition candidates - but support is still limited

The Maariv poll, conducted by Lazar Research headed by Dr. Menachem Lazar in cooperation with Panel4All, presented coalition voters with three heads of opposition parties and asked who among them is most suitable to serve as Prime Minister.

Eisenkot reached first place with 13%, slightly ahead of Avigdor Lieberman who received 12%, while Naftali Bennett won only 5%. However, the central figure is actually outside the three names: 63% of coalition voters answered that none of them is suitable in their eyes for Prime Minister, and another 7% answered that they do not know. That is, although Eisenkot leads among the three candidates presented, the data at this stage do not indicate a significant breakthrough into the coalition camp. An absolute majority of the camp's voters do not choose any of the opposition figures.

In the general suitability picture for Prime Minister, by contrast, Eisenkot leads Netanyahu by a gap of ten points - 48% versus 38% - the largest gap recorded since the comparison between the two began.

Maariv reader poll: Most respondents believe Amsalem harmed the Likud campaign

Also in the Maariv reader poll, the sensitivity aroused by Amsalem's words was evident. 52.2% believed that the minister harmed the Likud campaign, compared to 21.7% who answered that his words did not cause damage. 16.1% defined the storm as a "personal revenge," and 10% did not know how to answer. The gap is maintained also among those who declared that they will vote for coalition parties: 44.6% of them estimated that Amsalem harmed the campaign, compared to 32% who believed not. Among opposition voters, 57.3% saw his words as harm to Likud.

On the question of how many mandates Eisenkot might take from Likud, 38.2% of all respondents estimated that it is one to three mandates, 27.2% answered three to five mandates, and 34.6% believed that he might subtract from Likud five mandates or more. Among coalition voters the estimate was more moderate: 67.6% of them believed that Eisenkot can take from Likud between one and three mandates. By contrast, 40.9% of opposition voters estimated that he might transfer to himself five mandates or more.

Against the background of these data, any statement from within Likud that presents Eisenkot as a figure with potential to integrate into the party receives special political meaning. However, Amsalem, at least in the current interview, clarified that from his perspective Eisenkot's path to Likud passes through adopting the movement's positions - and not through changing the party's path for him.