A dangerous precedent: The new Hormuz framework that worries the USA
An agreement between Tehran and Oman may restore shipping in the strait – but at the cost of Iranian oversight and the possibility of transit fees. In Washington, they warn that recognizing state control over an international shipping lane is a worrying development.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei confirmed on Wednesday that Iran and Oman have agreed on the coordinates of a new shipping lane in the Strait of Hormuz. A joint statement anchoring these understandings is in the final stages of drafting.
According to reports, the framework unites the two existing lanes—the northern one in Iranian waters and the southern one in Omani waters—into a single two-way corridor. This will grant Iran oversight over ships entering the Gulf in exchange for reopening the route to global trade. However, Baghaei clarified that the publication is conditional on "third parties not disrupting the process," a clear hint at Washington.
According to a senior Iranian official who spoke with Reuters, the agreement will allow Iran to oversee traffic through Oman's sovereign waters as well—a point that remained a major sticking point in the talks. Another open question is the level of fees to be imposed on ships: Iran is demanding 5%–7% of the cargo value, Oman is proposing about 3%, and the USA is insisting that no fees be charged at all. A possible compromise being examined is making the fees "voluntary," although in practice, the fear of an Iranian attack could deter shipping companies from passing through the strait without paying.
Although Iran presents the agreement as a concession, it represents a fundamental change to the existing regime in the strait, which is based on international maritime law establishing absolute freedom of navigation without oversight or fees. If signed, Iran will become a power that regulates traffic on one of the world's most critical trade routes. This is a strategic achievement of the highest order for Tehran, preserving the leverage gained during the war without the need for constant military pressure.
"This would create a very dangerous precedent, which will repeat itself in other parts of the world," warned US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi told official Iranian television that the talks with Oman are very close to completion. According to him, the new lane will be temporary—for a period of two to four months—and will replace the two existing temporary lanes: the northern one defined near Larak Island and the southern one in the sovereign waters of Oman.
Gharibabadi emphasized that the arrangement will be signed solely between Iran and Oman: "Tehran does not recognize the rights of any other country in the process." He added that reaching an agreement with Oman will not necessarily lead to an automatic opening of Hormuz, as this depends on "the USA returning to its commitments in the memorandum of understanding."
