An order from Tehran? Pro-Iranian militias launched UAVs into Israel

Three UAV interceptions on the Israeli border in less than two weeks have raised questions, as the security establishment continues to struggle to determine the exact launch points for some of the devices. This morning, the Air Force intercepted a UAV identified near the Jordanian border, following the interception of two additional drones in the same area yesterday.

According to a security source, the UAVs intercepted yesterday were launched from Iraq, and it is highly likely that today's launch also originated there. About a week and a half ago, a similar event occurred when a drone was intercepted near the border, though its origin remains unclear. The vehicles did not penetrate Israeli territory, and no alerts were activated.

According to security assessments, there are three main possibilities regarding the origin of the launches:

• The most likely scenario is that all launches were conducted by pro-Iranian militias operating in Iraq. These militias possess a large arsenal of Iranian UAVs and have acted in the past against Israel, American bases in the region, and Gulf states. Yesterday, militias from Iraq also launched UAVs toward Saudi Arabia, reinforcing the assessment that they are actively operating a regional UAV front.

• Another possibility is that some of the UAVs arrived from Iran. However, security sources estimate the probability of this as very low at the current time. The prevailing assessment is that Tehran prefers to avoid direct confrontation with Israel, opting instead to operate through regional proxies.

• The third possibility is a launch carried out by the Houthis from Yemen. This scenario is considered less likely at this stage, as the organization's primary combat efforts are currently directed toward Saudi Arabia.

Since the beginning of the war, UAVs have become a primary attack tool for the pro-Iranian axis. Unlike rockets, they can fly long distances at low altitudes along changing routes, posing a significant challenge for detection and interception.

The launches occur during a period of regional tension, where organizations supported by Iran attempt to exert pressure on Israel without dragging Tehran into a direct confrontation. This strategy allows Iran to maintain plausible deniability and reduce the risk of immediate escalation.

The security establishment is now assessing whether these are isolated initiatives by various militias or the beginning of a new trend aimed at harassing the Israeli home front and eroding the alertness of the security systems.