"A wild card of natural disasters": The worrying forecast in the US following "Super El Niño"
The US climate agency warns that there is a nearly 70% chance that the current ocean warming phenomenon will break all known records. Scientists fear the dangerous combination with global warming, which will create droughts and floods around the world: "We are already in record-breaking territory."
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has published an updated and worrying forecast, according to which there is a nearly 70% chance that the "Super El Niño" event currently taking place will be the most powerful event ever recorded in history.
While previously the organization estimated that the phenomenon would only be "among the largest El Niño events on record," the new data points to particularly rapid intensification. Computer models now show, almost unanimously, that the phenomenon will peak in late autumn and early winter, at intensity levels higher than initially predicted.
Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, addressed the severity of the situation in a briefing he held:
"This is a truly exceptional event. We are already in record-breaking or record-tying territory, and we expect to soar even higher."
El Niño is a climate cycle characterized by warmer-than-average ocean temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. These warm waters transfer massive amounts of heat to the atmosphere through clouds and heavy precipitation, which alters global weather patterns and causes droughts in Indonesia and Australia, along with floods in parts of South America.
According to NOAA, the current event is expected to surpass in intensity even the massive "Super El Niño" of 1982-1983. Scientists predict that sea surface temperature anomalies will exceed 2.5 degrees Celsius above average.
The "wild card" that worries researchers
To measure this accurately against the background of general global warming, NOAA uses a new index called the "Relative Oceanic Niño Index" (RONI), and even according to this index, the event appears to be unprecedented.
The combination of the intensity of El Niño and the warmest global climate ever puts humanity in "uncharted territory," as never before has such a strong El Niño been documented in the shadow of such high background temperatures. Experts note that these factors turn the effects into a "wild card," as global warming acts together with El Niño to exacerbate heat waves and natural disasters.
Scientists liken human-caused warming to an escalator moving steadily upward, while El Niño events are the "steps" that launch the temperature even higher. Because of this, there is a very high probability that 2027 will set a new record as the hottest year in history, and it is possible that 2026 will do so as well. Despite its strength, NOAA forecasters emphasize that there is no guarantee that the effects will be severe in every region, but the probability of extreme events such as particularly wet winters increases significantly.
