A nuclear Iran and a civil war: The Israeli public's threat map

A violent conflict between groups in society and the acquisition of nuclear weapons by Iran are the two most threatening scenarios in the eyes of the Israeli public, according to a new survey presented on Monday at the National Security Conference of ynet and 'Yedioth Ahronoth' in collaboration with the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS).

Brigadier General (res.) Yuval Eilon, a senior researcher at the INSS and editor of the study, explained that the threat map was formed based on surveys of 150 experts and interviews with public leaders. The scenarios were then presented to the general public to assess their severity, probability, and potential for damage.

Key Threats

According to the July survey, 39% of respondents identified a violent internal conflict as one of the three main threats to Israel over the next five years. An identical percentage cited the acquisition of nuclear weapons by Iran. A large-scale missile attack on the home front followed at 35%, while the erosion of the state's democratic character was cited by 31%.

Eilon emphasized that the public no longer focuses solely on military risks: 97% of respondents expressed concern about internal threats, compared to over 80% concerned about external ones.

Probability and Damage

The most likely scenario, according to respondents, is a large-scale missile attack (61%). Meanwhile, fears regarding the loss of US support have surged: the percentage of those who view this scenario as probable doubled in five months, reaching 26%.

In terms of potential damage, a violent internal conflict ranks highest (69%). Furthermore, 64% of respondents rated the state's readiness to deal with such a conflict as low or very low.

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Interconnected Threats

The study indicates that these threats amplify one another. Internal democratic erosion may weaken US support, which in turn undermines Israel's military advantage and its ability to deter Iran. The USA is defined in the analysis as a key 'force multiplier.'

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains a significant factor, with 55% of respondents viewing it as a major threat. The lack of a political horizon, according to the report, turns Israel from a 'strategic asset' into a 'burdensome factor,' complicating the recruitment of international coalitions.

Home Front and Economic Vulnerabilities

The report highlighted several additional risks:

• The economic gap between the cost of offensive means (UAVs) and defensive interceptors, which strains ammunition stockpiles.

• The fact that 28% of the population lacks access to standard protective shelters.

• 'Brain drain' in the high-tech sector, which contributes half of the country's economic growth.