Russian official claimed "we will not win" - and was fired by "order from above"
Andrey Klepach submitted a report in which he argued that Ukraine is not going to collapse and that Moscow's economy is on the way to a "social crisis and a major lag behind the West". The head of the state investment corporation in Russia immediately ordered the dismissal of the chief economist.
The Russian state investment corporation, VEB, fired Andrey Klepach today, Monday, from his position as the organization's chief economist, one of the most important economic roles in the country.
In a press release, VEB claimed that Klepach's tenure had expired. However, the economic press believes that Klepach was dismissed after delivering a report at a session of the Nikitsky Club, in which he stated that Russia would lose in a "war of attrition" with Ukraine and the West. For example, The Bell, citing sources close to the bank, reports that the CEO of VEB, Igor Shuvalov, fired Klepach "by order from above".
According to Klepach, Russia is not capable of standing up to global economic or technological competition. He noted a decline in investments and a recession in the civil industry:
"We will not win this war of attrition. We have an illusion that everything in Ukraine will collapse. It has not collapsed and will not collapse. Our costs are growing... The losses from the attacks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on our infrastructure — ports, oil and gas, chemical complexes, logistics — are growing and are already becoming a significant macroeconomic obstacle to Russian economic growth."
"I believe that Russia will not collapse, but I am almost sure that we will reach a social crisis. We will not collapse economically, but our lag will grow, with all the accompanying consequences," he added.
Andrey Klepach is one of the leading macroeconomists in Russia. He served as the chief economist at Vnesheconombank since 2014. Before that, he spent ten years as the director of the macroeconomic forecasting department at the Russian Ministry of Economic Development and Trade and as a deputy minister.
The Nikitsky Club is a multidisciplinary forum of researchers and entrepreneurs founded in 2000 by Sergey Kapitsa, a professor emeritus at Moscow University. The club regularly hosts public discussions under the title "Russia in a Global Context".
