Trump Weighs Iran Deal Amid Deadlocked Hormuz and Regional Tensions
U.S. President Donald Trump links a future deal with Iran to the upcoming midterms, while Tehran insists on lifting sanctions and the naval blockade first.
United States President Donald Trump has promised an agreement "eventually"—either before or after the U.S. midterm elections in November—but remains reluctant to relinquish the naval blockade that has become an exceptionally effective pressure lever against the regime of the ayatollahs, while Iran also continues to sound a belligerent tone. A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Friday that Tehran will show no flexibility regarding its nuclear program and will allow the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz only when "all its conditions are met."
The official did not elaborate on those conditions, but Iranian officials have previously stated that these terms include lifting the naval blockade, removing sanctions on Iranian oil, releasing at least $12 billion in frozen assets, and ending the war "across all fronts"—including in Lebanon. The senior official's remarks come as Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi remains in New York, and his spokesperson stated that indirect talks with Donald Trump's representatives, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, may continue.
Araghchi, who spoke with Witkoff and Kushner for three hours through Qatari mediation on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly session last Tuesday, is expected to remain in New York until Monday, according to The New York Times. Late Thursday, he briefed international media correspondents on the new Iranian proposal in the talks—a proposal that, according to various reports, effectively constitutes a return to the "memorandum of understanding" agreement from June, an agreement largely perceived as granting Iran significant achievements, such as recognition of its role in managing traffic in the strategic strait.
Iranian sources told The Times that the Iranian proposal is to implement that same agreement, which included several complex phases and was supposed to be executed over a 60-day period, at a much accelerated pace. Araghchi himself stated that the plan is to complete those phases within a week, and immediately afterward to open negotiations on the nuclear program. However, he demanded that prior to that there must be an end to hostilities on all fronts—including Lebanon—the release of Iran's frozen funds, the lifting of the blockade on its ports, and exemption from sanctions on Iranian oil sales.
If these demands are met, he added that "by the end of the seventh day" the Strait of Hormuz will be opened. "It would be better," he added, for the deal to be reached before the U.S. midterm elections, scheduled for November 3. On its face, Trump has a strong incentive to reach an agreement with Iran before the elections—since merely announcing it would be enough to bring about significant drops in oil and fuel prices that surged following the war and Iranian attacks against tankers crossing Hormuz. Polls show that a large proportion of American voters are deeply frustrated by the surge in prices, a frustration Republicans fear will cost them control of Congress.
Pressure and Negotiations in New York
Yet Trump himself repeatedly declares that he is in no rush to reach a deal, and The Wall Street Journal reported today that the United States has made it clear, via mediator Qatar, that Trump does not intend to give up the naval blockade (as he did following the June agreement, before renewing it in July). A White House official told the newspaper that the blockade and intensified sanctions—which this week led to widespread paralysis in the Iranian aviation industry—provide the U.S. with a "strong position" vis-à-vis Iran.
"President Trump is open to talks with Iran under the right circumstances, but he has no need to negotiate with the Iranians," the official claimed. In the background lies also Trump's deep distrust, after several of his previous agreements with Iran collapsed within a short time, whether due to disagreements over their implementation or due to internal friction within the regime of the ayatollahs—with claims that radical elements within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps carried out attacks against ships following those agreements.
A major question mark also surrounds the very authority of Araghchi, considered a more moderate figure within the regime, to reach any agreement—against the backdrop of criticism voiced inside Iran by more radical factions regarding the renewed talks with the U.S.
Regional Concerns and Saudi Opposition
At the same time, opposition has emerged from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states against an agreement with Iran—at least an agreement with terms similar to the June memorandum of understanding. Saudi Arabia, which supported efforts to reach a renewed agreement during the summer and opposed the resumption of the war, has now changed its position, according to reports by the Associated Press and The Wall Street Journal.
Sources familiar with the details told The Journal that both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are pressing the U.S. not to make concessions to Iran—neither to lift the blockade on its ports nor to ease economic pressure. An AP source stated that the reason for this shift is the escalation with the Houthis, Iran's allies who have attacked numerous oil facilities in Saudi Arabia and captured the Bab el-Mandeb strait in Yemen, which connects Europe to Asia via the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, and whose importance has only grown since the blocking of Hormuz.
The source told AP that in the wake of the escalation with the Houthis, Saudi Arabia now casts doubt on the Iranian attempt to advance an agreement with the U.S. He noted that previously Riyadh "could live with" an agreement granting Iran a certain degree of control over Hormuz, but Riyadh's calculations changed following the Houthis' expansionist campaign and the attack carried out by militias in Iraq on Saudi Arabia's strategic East-West pipeline, which allows it to export oil through an alternative route bypassing Hormuz via the Red Sea.
