The engines of incitement are operating undisturbed - Judea and Samaria are approaching a boiling point

The recent stabbing attacks in Judea and Samaria and the shooting attack in the area of Havat Gilad raise again the question of whether we are facing a wave of terror in Judea and Samaria, after a period of relative quiet in this arena. The immediate tendency is to check if it is a "directed hand" of institutionalized terror infrastructures. Apparently, the nature of the attacks suggests that it is not Iranian direction or activity of terrorist organizations. The stabbing attacks look like spontaneous lone-wolf attacks, while the attack at Havat Gilad was an exploitation of an opportunity during a friction event, and not a planned attack based on an institutionalized terror infrastructure.

However, these attacks may ignite a wave of terror in an arena that until now was far from the fire of the war on other fronts. This is the distinct pattern of lone-wolf terror, which is utilized and activated also by institutionalized elements, in a decentralized manner and through inspiration. Most of the time, it does not rely on headquarters or a command hierarchy, but is driven by ideological fuel, incitement on the network, and local environmental circumstances.

To get to the roots of the current phenomenon, one must dive into the consciousness of the lone Palestinian youth. The central engine of incitement and the motivation of lone-wolf terrorist activity is found in social networks and relies on two central axes. The first axis is the difficult situation and the ongoing suffering in the Gaza Strip, which serve as a powerful and effective emotional lever for feelings of revenge, frustration, and growing national solidarity. The second axis, and the most dangerous of all, is the religious narrative that is fed by the old slogan that fuels lone-wolf attacks: "Al-Aqsa is in danger."

Engines of incitement and catalysts on the ground

Security and religious tension around the Temple Mount has increased in recent weeks against the backdrop of Tisha B'Av events. The Muslim Waqf, which serves as a central engine of incitement, published dramatic messages about "settler incursions into the Al-Aqsa Mosque" - the permanent designation for Jewish ascent to the Temple Mount within the framework of incitement messages.

These messages receive resonance on social networks and are perceived on the Palestinian street not as a news report, but as a call to save the Al-Aqsa Mosque from occupation and takeover. The slogans were even sharpened from warnings in the style of "Al-Aqsa is in danger" to dramatic messages of the type "Al-Aqsa is occupied" - an immediate and effective trigger, which converts ongoing frustration and continuous incitement into a momentary and spontaneous decision to go out and carry out an attack.

To the ideological infrastructure, most of which operates undisturbed, two environmental catalysts are added. The first catalyst is the momentum of Israeli construction in Judea and Samaria and the multitude of daily friction events on the roads, in outposts - some of which are illegal - and on agricultural farms. Entries into Palestinian villages without coordination may exact an even heavier price than that of the last event at Havat Gilad. Security officials rightly warn against these actions, as well as against calls for revenge that could escalate the wave of terror.

The second catalyst is the weakness of the Palestinian Authority. As far as the incitement system is concerned, the Palestinian Authority is part of the problem. The lack of effective governance and the erosion of its legitimacy on the Palestinian street create a dangerous leadership vacuum, allowing the ideological flames to spread freely.

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The ideological and legal failure

Facing the threat of a renewed wave of lone-wolf attacks, the failure of the State of Israel is primarily ideological and legal. The helplessness in the face of the engines of incitement is prominent, among other things, in the ridiculous verdict given this week against Kamal al-Khatib, deputy head of the northern branch of the Islamic Movement, after a lengthy trial for incitement. The message perceived on the street is one of weakness in the face of extremist incitement.

Alongside the partial handling of incitement on social networks, the counter-terror response of the Shin Bet and the IDF, which prevent dozens of lone-wolf attacks in advance, will not be enough. Effective coping requires stricter punishment for incitement and a quantum leap in handling the cyber and consciousness space. Without root treatment, alongside calming the religious fire around the Temple Mount, the system will continue to wrap itself in defensive measures, while the next spontaneous attack is being concocted on the network.