How Israel's Surplus Vote Agreements Shape Knesset Election Results

As the final vote count concludes, surplus vote agreements between political parties in Israel are set to take effect. These agreements could play a decisive role in the upcoming Knesset elections given the narrow margins currently projected between political blocs.

Which Parties Signed and Who Remained Unaligned?

The lists that signed surplus agreements include Yisrael Beytenu and BeYachad, The Democrats and Yashar, Likud and Religious Zionism, Ra'am and the Joint List, as well as Shas and United Torah Judaism. Such agreements can only be signed between pairs of parties and are relevant solely if both pass the electoral threshold. Parties that did not sign include Otzma Yehudit, Amcha Yisrael, and the Reservists and Economic party.

How Surplus Vote Agreements Work

A surplus vote agreement allows parties within the same political bloc or ideological proximity to pool their unused votes from the initial mandate allocation. The mechanism is designed to increase a party's chances of winning an additional mandate at the expense of rival factions by combining remainder votes.

First, the electoral threshold is set at 3.25%, and the cost of a single mandate is calculated by dividing total valid votes by 120 Knesset seats. Unallocated mandates are then distributed using the Bader-Offor method, established in 1973. Parties with a surplus agreement pool their remainders, strengthening their mathematical weight against unaligned lists.

Allocating the Additional Mandate

If two allied parties qualify for an extra mandate, their individual list divisors are calculated separately by dividing each party's total votes by its current mandates plus one. The party with the higher quotient secures the additional seat, ensuring the mandate remains within the political bloc.