Likud Surges to 27 Seats in Channel 13 Exit Poll Update Despite Low Pre-Election Projections
Channel 13's final pre-election poll gave Likud 19 seats, but election night updates surged the figure to 27. Pollster Shmuel Rosner explained that satellite parties underperformed while Likud strengthened significantly.
The final pre-election poll by Channel 13 gave Likud just 19 mandates, but election night exit polls and subsequent updates saw that figure surge to 27 seats. An eight-mandate gap separated the final polling projection from the updated results, prompting Channel 13 pollster Shmuel Rosner to explain the discrepancy on air.
"When we look at the right-wing bloc, it is a very different picture from what we saw in the polls," Rosner admitted. "In the polls, Likud was much weaker and its satellite parties were stronger. In reality, Likud grew significantly stronger, while the satellite parties were the ones that got crushed."
Channel 13's initial exit poll granted Likud 25 mandates, but that number shifted as actual ballot box results began arriving. Following ongoing updates, Benjamin Netanyahu's party climbed another two seats to reach 27 mandates.
Rosner detailed how the statistical adjustment was conducted: "Real ballot boxes started coming in, meaning that at this stage of the night, actual results arrive. We compare the true results with the exit poll boxes and can identify where certain deviations occurred in the polling stations."
He added that the adjustments resulted in adding two mandates to Likud compared to the exit poll, while taking one mandate from Gadi Eisenkot's party and one from United Torah Judaism.
At the time of the broadcast, approximately 40 polling stations had been compared against true results, with Rosner noting that more boxes would enter the system and minor fluctuations could still occur.
The Final Block Distribution
The updated Channel 13 exit poll allocated 27 mandates to Likud, Gadi Eisenkot's party received 22, Naftali Bennett's BeYachad secured 14, the Joint List got 10, and The Democrats won 9. Yisrael Beytenu and Ra'am each captured 7 mandates, while United Torah Judaism, Shas, Otzma Yehudit, Religious Zionism, and Zehut each obtained 6 seats.
The bloc distribution in the updated sample stood at 51 mandates for the Netanyahu-led bloc and 51 for the opposing bloc, alongside 18 mandates for Arab parties. Rosner emphasized that the broader political map points to limited coalition-building options.
