Surprising poll in France: Far-left leader advances to the second round of presidential elections
Two polls published days apart predict that Jean-Luc Mélenchon manages to qualify for the second round of the elections. In some of the scenarios tested, he fails to do so, but in all of them, Marine Le Pen eventually wins. Mélenchon represents a distinct pro-Palestinian position and refused to condemn the massacre by the terrorist organization Hamas.
According to a new poll by the IFOP institute published yesterday in the newspaper Le Figaro, the leader of the far-left in France, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, is emerging as a possible candidate to face Marine Le Pen in the second round of the French presidential elections in May 2027. This is the second poll in recent days to point to such a possibility, highlighting the growing polarization among the French electorate towards the end of the Emmanuel Macron era.
The bottom line of the poll is that Marine Le Pen wins in every scenario in the second round, regardless of her opponent, and she is expected with high probability to be the next president of France.
According to the poll conducted on August 24 and 25, Mélenchon, leader of the far-left party La France Insoumise (LFI), could finish in second place in the first round. However, this scenario occurs in only three out of seven scenarios examined. In cases where Mélenchon qualifies for the second round, he receives 16–19% of the votes in the first round, while Le Pen leads with 33–35%. In the second round, Le Pen is expected to defeat Mélenchon with 67% of the votes compared to 33% for the far-left leader.
In four other scenarios examined, center-right candidates, including former ministers and prime ministers, finish the first round ahead of Mélenchon. This new poll joins another published earlier this week by the Toluna Harris Interactive institute, which also identified Mélenchon as a candidate who might compete in the second round.
For Mélenchon, this is a dramatic change compared to his previous campaigns in 2012, 2017, and 2022, when he never managed to qualify for the second round. Nevertheless, Le Pen continues to lead by a large margin in the first round and secures a clear victory in any second-round scenario. The closest scenario is against former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe, where Le Pen receives 52% to Philippe's 48%.
The data highlights the importance of the split of votes in the center and on the left. When several centrist candidates run simultaneously, it is easier for Mélenchon to qualify for the second round. Conversely, when votes consolidate around one central candidate like Philippe, Mélenchon's chances decrease. Simultaneously, Raphaël Glucksmann is emerging as a more significant factor within the left camp.
In recent years, Mélenchon has been identified with one of the sharpest pro-Palestinian positions in French politics. He supports the establishment of a Palestinian state and criticizes Israel sharply. During the war in Gaza, he labeled Israel's actions as genocide and supported the lawsuit filed by South Africa against it. His party also supports sanctions and an arms embargo on Israel. This stance has faced harsh criticism from political rivals and parts of the French left, particularly due to claims that he did not clearly condemn the October 7 attack and Hamas, and even refused to refer to the hostages by name, such as the members of the Bibas family.
