Dramatic mandate poll: Smotrich crashes, Winter surprises, and the right-wing bloc is at a low
A new mandate poll reveals a shake-up in the national camp, as the Religious Zionism party fails to pass the electoral threshold while the new party of a reserve brigadier general records a surprising achievement.
A new mandate poll published on Wednesday indicates dramatic changes on the political map and highlights the intensifying struggle within the right-wing bloc. According to data from a poll conducted for the Walla website by "Lazar Research," headed by Dr. Menachem Lazar in collaboration with the online respondent panel Panel4All, the entry of the "Amcha Yisrael" party led by Brigadier General (res.) Ofer Winter into the Knesset with 6 mandates creates a real shake-up.
The main victim of Winter's marked success is, apparently, the Religious Zionism party led by Bezalel Smotrich. The poll points to a complete collapse of the party, which receives only 2.6% support — well below the electoral threshold. At the same time, Itamar Ben Gvir's party, Otzma Yehudit, manages to maintain its strength and receives 8 mandates, which sharpens the split and the struggle for the votes of the ideological right.
Beyond the changes within the bloc, the poll reveals a grim picture for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The entire right-wing bloc crashes to 43 mandates, with the Likud itself receiving only 21 mandates. This figure indicates that even in a scenario where Winter joins the bloc after the elections, the future coalition would number only 49 members, far from the 61 mandates required to form a government.
On the other side of the political divide, the "Yashar!" party led by Gadi Eizenkot is positioned at the top with 25 mandates, followed by Naftali Bennett's "Beyachad" with 15, the "Democrats" led by Yair Golan with 10, and Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu with 9. Shas and United Torah Judaism obtain 7 mandates each, similar to the United Arab List. Mansour Abbas's Ra'am party closes the list with 5 mandates.
The poll points to a long list of parties that remain outside the Knesset, including Hili Tropper's "Beit Tzioni HaMiluimnikim" (2.1%), the Economic Party (1.2%), and Gilad Erdan's "HaAchdut" (0.3%). However, the focus of interest remains in the national camp, where Winter's entry reshapes the balance of power and places a big question mark over Smotrich's political future and the composition of the next government.
