Dramatic mandate poll: Benjamin Netanyahu leads, Eisenkot breathes down his neck
A 60:60 tie between the coalition and opposition blocs. Likud maintains its lead, while the 'Yashar' party secures second place. An analysis of how a right-wing merger scenario would affect the political map.
A new mandate poll conducted by the "Direct Polls" research institute, headed by Tzuriel Sharon for i24NEWS, presents the current political landscape in Israel. According to the survey, if elections were held today, the Likud party would remain the largest party with 27 mandates. The "Yashar" party follows in second place with 23 mandates. The "Democrats" and "Beichad" parties are tied for third and fourth with 9 mandates each, followed by United Torah Judaism with 8 mandates.
The Joint List, Otzma Yehudit, Shas, and Yisrael Beiteinu each receive 7 mandates. The union of Religious Zionism and Zehut secures 6 mandates, while the Ra'am party and "Amcha Yisrael" close the list of parties crossing the electoral threshold with 5 mandates each.
A long list of parties, including Blue and White, Noam LeYisrael, HaKalkalit, Achi, El HaDegel, Beit Tzioni, HaAchdut, HaTzibur HaCharedi, HaKahal, Yisrael Techila, and Tzeva Shachor, remain below the one percent threshold.
Bloc Distribution
The poll reveals a dramatic scenario of absolute equality (60:60). The coalition and right-wing bloc (Likud, United Torah Judaism, Shas, Otzma Yehudit, Religious Zionism and Zehut, and "Amcha Yisrael") reaches exactly 60 mandates.
Conversely, the opposition and Arab factions bloc ("Yashar", "Democrats", "Beichad", Yisrael Beiteinu, the Joint List, and Ra'am) also stands at 60 mandates, with 48 held by non-Arab opposition parties and 12 by Arab factions.
Right-Wing Merger Scenario
The poll also examined an alternative scenario: Ofer Winter and his party uniting with Religious Zionism and Zehut into a "Union of Right-Wing Parties" led by Bezalel Smotrich, alongside Knesset member Tali Gottlieb moving to Otzma Yehudit.
Even with this merger, the 60:60 deadlock remains. The coalition bloc reaches 60 mandates, led by Likud (26), followed by the "Union of Right-Wing Parties" (11), Otzma Yehudit and United Torah Judaism (8 each), and Shas (7).
The opposition bloc also maintains 60 mandates: "Yashar" leads with 23, followed by the "Democrats" and "Beichad" (9 each), Yisrael Beiteinu and the Joint List (7 each), and Ra'am (5).
The survey was conducted on September 2, 2026, among 522 adult respondents representing a representative sample of the Israeli population, with a margin of error of 4.2% at a 95% confidence level.
