Six months into the war, Iran returns to talk of protests: "People are hungry. Nothing will stop this"
Inflation is soaring, basic commodities are already hard to obtain, and fuel prices may also rise. Iran does not shy away from any means when it comes to suppressing protests and has already killed tens of thousands, but Ismail from Tehran told The New York Times that an economic uprising "cannot be stopped." Testimonies from the crisis, the regime's sense of pride: "They are convinced they have defeated the world" - and the message from Mojtaba Khamenei to the people: "One must avoid any statement that causes despair."
In Iran, they mark today, Friday, six months since the moment Israel attacked at 08:10 in Tehran, dropping, among other things, many-ton bombs on Ali Khamenei's compound. Those bombs were the beginning of a long campaign — which has not yet ended — but has changed direction in recent days by US President Donald Trump, who defined himself as the "great partner" in the war. Now the Americans are focusing on the economic strangulation of Iran, even though Trump himself continues to tweet about the fact that he is done being "Mr. Nice Guy," as he put it.
On the other hand, the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, published an appeal this evening to the Iranian people "to avoid any statement that causes despair." Trump was the one who announced in January that "help is on the way," but held himself back from attacking in those days, in the hope that the Iranians would stop the executions and change their ways. That was not the case, and a month and a half later, he launched a war together with Israel — among other things after that presentation that was shown to him at the White House by the Prime Minister, while senior officials in the security establishment, led by the head of the Mossad, watched on the screens. That presentation promised to advance the fall of the Iranian regime — a goal that, as of now, has not been realized. Yesterday, the head of the Mossad, Dadi Barnea, said that it would be necessary to escalate the actions — and expressed optimism that the regime would fall.
Either way, The New York Times published today testimonies of Iranian citizens who no longer believe that the regime will fall. What does bother them is survival. "I cannot describe the level of anxiety about the future," said Negar to the newspaper, an Iranian who asked not to be identified by her full name for fear of what the authorities would do to her. The US decided, as mentioned, to change direction — and its Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, was quoted as saying this week that for now, the attacks in Iran will stop — and the campaign will become economic. According to American hopes, an economic collapse will bring Tehran to actual surrender — and to accepting the American conditions regarding its nuclear program, and regarding the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
But one Iranian tried to reflect the real situation in a conversation with the American newspaper: "The Islamic Republic is convinced that it has defeated the world and that everyone is afraid of it," he said. The big concern in Iran is that the price of fuel — which is heavily subsidized in Iran — may rise, and long lines were documented at gas stations there this week. "Everyone is rushing to buy and hoard food, especially Pakistani rice," Marzieh, a resident of Bandar Abbas — the large port city of the Islamic Republic — told The New York Times. She noted that even basic commodities have already become more expensive.
According to the article in The New York Times, some Iranians said they expect a new round of protests soon — even though the regime does not shy away from means and is not afraid to use live fire against protesters, as it did in suppressing the previous wave of protests — with the killing of tens of thousands of protesters across the country. Perhaps because of the fire beneath the surface, the Supreme Leader of Iran published a written message to the people in which he determined, among other things: "I appreciate the steps taken by our government, which were implemented despite the limitations and plots of the American-Zionist enemy, and despite the sanctions and the siege. One must avoid any statement that causes despair or weakens national and public resolve."
The fuel price hike in 2019, for example, was what brought masses of Iranians to the streets. "You cannot stop an economic uprising — with anything," Ismail from Tehran told The New York Times. "War will not stop it, and neither will violence." According to him, the Iranians have fallen into a "black hole. People are hungry, confused, and unable to find a way out. We are alone, in a catastrophic situation of chaos and abandonment."
Last night, when President Trump was asked about his new strategy against Iran and whether he is holding talks with them, he replied: "We don't want to talk to them." In a conversation with reporters in the Oval Office, he added: "We are also not looking to meet with them." The Wall Street Journal even reported that the administration had notified the mediators "again and again" that it had no interest in returning to the terms of the memorandum of understanding with Iran from June. A senior official in Iran described the American steps as "total economic war" after the US Treasury Secretary announced this week a plan to cut Iran off from its trading partners, as part of what Trump calls the "economic D-Day."
