Only 21 mandates for Likud: The poll that paints a difficult picture for Netanyahu
Amid internal struggles in Likud, unrest in the West Bank, and progress on Gaza settlement plans, the coalition bloc has weakened to 48 mandates. Gadi Eisenkot has opened an 11% lead over Benjamin Netanyahu in suitability for Prime Minister.
Against the backdrop of internal struggles in Likud ahead of the primaries, clashes in the West Bank, and the international plan for a settlement in the Gaza Strip, the coalition bloc weakened this week by one mandate and stands at only 48. This is according to a 'Maariv' poll, conducted by Lazar Research led by Dr. Menachem Lazar, in cooperation with Panel4ALL.
The weakening of the coalition bloc is a direct result of Likud's decline to 21 mandates—two fewer than the 'Yashar!' party led by Gadi Eisenkot.
The Zionist opposition bloc reaches 57 mandates, and together with 'Beit Tzioni' led by Chili Tropper and Yoaz Hendel, it could reach a majority of 61. The Arab parties receive 11 additional mandates.
The 'Maariv' poll also shows that the 'Democrats' party is recovering, rising by one mandate to 10. 'Hadash-Ta'al' also strengthens by one mandate, reaching 6.
Furthermore, the unity list led by Gilad Erdan, announced last week, does not pass the electoral threshold, receiving only 1.7%. 'Blue and White' also fails to pass (1.9%), while 'Israel T'hila' led by Sharren Haskel (0.6%) and 'Balad' (1.5%) remain far from the threshold. The list closest to passing is the 'Economic Party' led by Prof. Yaron Zelekha, which receives 2.5%. Lists failing to pass the threshold account for approximately 5 mandates.
Additionally, a scenario of a joint run by three Arab parties (Hadash, Ta'al, and Balad) and the addition of Yoav Segalovitz to the second spot on the Ra'am list benefits them all. The Joint Arab List strengthens by 2 mandates to 8, and Ra'am rises to 6. Together, the Arab parties garner 14 mandates. In this scenario, the Benjamin Netanyahu coalition receives 47 mandates, while the Zionist opposition weakens to 55.
The poll also shows that Eisenkot is increasing the gap between himself and Netanyahu in suitability for Prime Minister to a double-digit figure: 49% compared to 38% for Netanyahu.
Furthermore, the majority of the Israeli public (64%) believes that if a situation arises where, after an agreement between the USA and Iran, Israel identifies an immediate danger from Iran that requires an attack, it should do so even alone and without the consent of the USA.
In the poll, conducted on August 12–13, 3,112 people were contacted, with 506 respondents answering (16%), representing a representative sample of the adult population in Israel aged 18 and over. The maximum sampling error is 4.4%.
