Serbia Heads to High-Stakes Early Elections Amid Tight Polls and Protests
Serbia faces high-stakes early parliamentary elections as former president Aleksandar Vucic battles an unprecedented student movement born from a deadly railway station tragedy.
Serbia is heading toward early parliamentary elections on Sunday, with former Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic facing an unusual political challenge: a student movement that evolved from street protests into a nationwide electoral list. The latest independent poll gives the movement a slight edge, while other surveys point to a victory for the ruling camp, leaving the outcome uncertain as smaller parties risk losing parliamentary representation.
Thousands of students and their supporters gathered in Belgrade ahead of a final rally planned at Slavija Square, while Vucic held a rally in Nis and expressed confidence in his victory. Police have arrested six suspects on charges of planning civil unrest on election day, heightening tensions ahead of the vote and fueling fears of post-electoral clashes.
From Tragedy to Nationwide Protest
The backdrop to the elections is the collapse of a concrete canopy at the Novi Sad railway station in November 2024, which resulted in 16 deaths. Demands to investigate accountability and alleged corruption in the renovation works snowballed into anti-government protests, road blockades, and university strikes. The students demanded early elections, and the ongoing protests have thoroughly shaken the political establishment.
Vucic announced early elections in September and subsequently resigned from the presidency to run for prime minister. According to public broadcaster RTS, Parliament Speaker Ana Brnabic is set to fulfill presidential duties until separate presidential elections are held. Commentators noted that the resignation allows Vucic to dedicate more time to campaigning, while highlighting his record on investments, infrastructure development, and economic stabilization.
The Ruling Coalition Versus the Student List
At the center of the race is Vucic's "United Serbia" list, anchored by the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS). Challenging the ruling coalition is the "Students Win" list, led by cardiologist Ilija Sardanovic, who is not necessarily the movement's candidate for prime minister. The list includes lecturers, cultural figures, and farmers, promising to combat corruption, enhance transparency, ensure media freedom, and reform education. However, details regarding its implementation plans and core foreign policy stances have raised questions.
In an interview with N1, Sardanovic called for the election cycle to conclude peacefully and with dignity. Meanwhile, the Socialist Party (SPS) is running independently on the "Stability Factor" list led by Ivica Dacic, the interior minister in the caretaker government. Dacic stated that his party serves as an anchor holding and protecting Serbia. Other competing factions include the pro-European list of Marinika Tepic and Zdravko Ponos, as well as the nationalist list of Milos Jovanovic.
Conflicting Polls and Endangered Minor Parties
An NSPM poll published on October 20 awards the students 44.5 percent and Vucic's list 42.7 percent among decided voters. Conducted via phone among 1,050 respondents between September 25 and October 5, the survey excludes Kosovo. A full 18.3 percent of respondents expressed no preference. Conversely, a Faktor Plus poll conducted in mid-September gave Vucic 48.6 percent and the student list 37.1 percent. Research organization BIRODI emphasizes that voter turnout and the composition of the electorate could significantly alter the final outcome.
The clearest potential losers of the election are smaller parties. The NSPM poll places several established factions below the 3 percent electoral threshold, including Dacic's Socialists at 2.9 percent, the pro-European opposition at 2.7 percent, and the nationalist right at 2.5 percent. However, the Faktor Plus survey showed these parties clearing the threshold, making their survival dependent on which poll proves more accurate.
Beyond the battle for votes, questions persist regarding the fairness of the electoral process. According to AP, the Serbian election monitoring organization CRTA reported over one hundred violent incidents during the campaign, surveillance of opposition activists, and media bias favoring the ruling authorities.
