Pleasing Trump without alienating the base: Netanyahu's election trap

Almost three years have passed since the October 7 massacre, two and a half months until the elections, an "absolute victory" has not yet been achieved - and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is walking a fine line regarding the progress of US President Donald Trump's plan for the Gaza Strip. After the solution for the "day after" in Gaza was postponed repeatedly, Netanyahu now finds himself with his back to the wall - facing a challenge that is becoming increasingly difficult: on one hand, to meet Trump's demands, and on the other, not to disappoint his base, just before the October elections.

International media outlets were quick to interpret Netanyahu's rejection of the 15 points of the "roadmap" in the agreement with Hamas as a "rare public rift," but the Peace Council was quick to clarify that on the ground, Israel is actually implementing the agreement, and that it is better for it that "the announcements match the actions on the ground." Also on the ground, IDF forces testify to the change, and soldiers say they have moved from an attack mode to a response mode. The IDF has raised the level of authorization for strikes to the level of the Chief of Staff, which in practice means receiving approval from the political echelon.

Meanwhile, a source in the Gaza "Peace Council" told the Reuters news agency this Monday that the 15-point plan is still in effect, and discussions with Israel are continuing. According to him, "Israel is not required to rely on 'trust' or perform irreversible moves before steps are implemented on the ground." The source added that "the roadmap is between the 'Peace Council' and Hamas."

Netanyahu is meanwhile walking between the raindrops. Trump's plan requires him to make significant concessions, while polls so far are not encouraging for the coalition. "He is walking a fine political line," explained Shira Efron, head of Israel policy at the American RAND Corporation. "On one hand, he needs to align himself with his support base and his coalition, to whom he promised an 'absolute victory' over Hamas. On the other hand, he does not want to anger Trump," she explained.

After yielding to the American President's dictates regarding the war with Iran, Netanyahu now has to decide how to proceed in the Strip. As mentioned, he has already agreed to concessions regarding targeted killings and airstrikes. According to The New York Times, the day after Mohammed Dahlan said on August 2 that "Jared Kushner said he is working with the Israeli side to bring about an end to the strikes on Gaza," Netanyahu met with senior officials in the "Peace Council," including Nickolay Mladenov. According to three sources, following the pressure exerted on him, Netanyahu agreed to order the IDF to stop the strikes. The last strike in Gaza, said a source in the "Civil Defense System" in the Strip, which is subordinate to Hamas, occurred on the same evening that Netanyahu met with Mladenov.

However, as part of the agreement with Hamas, Netanyahu will be required to take additional steps that will cost him an even heavier political price. The Times noted that the timing of the progress in the agreement is very problematic for Netanyahu's campaign, especially given the fact that the opposition bloc is currently overtaking him in the polls. "Trump's agreement with Hamas is far from the absolute surrender that Netanyahu pledged to achieve," the American newspaper wrote. "The agreement does not mention the expulsion of senior Hamas military wing commanders, and even offers paths that will allow some members of the Hamas government to continue working in the public sector. Scenes of Israeli forces withdrawing from Gaza could further undermine Netanyahu's argument to right-wing voters that Israel has already won the war against Hamas. This is not the victory he marketed throughout the war."

Meanwhile, while all war fronts are still open, the Chief of Staff spoke at an operational forum under his leadership, with the participation of the senior command staff. "In all the main arenas, political negotiation processes are taking place these days - all of these are the result of the IDF's historic achievements," claimed Rav-Aluf Eyal Zamir. He noted that "we must ensure that we bring the campaign's achievements to fruition and maximize them. We are well prepared in defense alongside readiness and immediate alert for a return to intense fighting."