Reservations, locations and the winning card: two weeks until the closing of the lists for the Knesset

Exactly two weeks from now, the most dramatic moment of the election campaign will arrive - at least until election day on October 27: the closing of the lists for the Knesset.

The parties are preparing for the deadline with a series of plans and ideas, but in Israel, as in Israel - everything will be decided at the last moment. So what are the parties planning? The political map, a status report.

Likud

As in every primary - the recount of votes in the Likud primaries is continuing these days, and it is possible that we are expecting a few more dramatic changes in the list - the most central of which is the rise of Eti Atiya to the 25th place (as the third woman on the list) in place of Minister Gamliel, who may be pushed to an unrealistic place.

Netanyahu has 5 reservations left at this stage (2 of them in semi-realistic places, 26 and 29). In addition, Netanyahu may use a clause that gives him the right to reserve a candidate on behalf of Sa'ar's "Yamin Mamlahti" party, not at the expense of these reservation quotas - and thus push his rival Nir Barkat all the way to the 32nd place. On the stock exchange of names for reservation, Netali Shem Tov and Itzik Bonzel currently stand out - but the really interesting question is who will be the reservations that will reach the top ten, and will be the new faces of Likud. Names like Moshe Kahlon, Yuval Steinitz and others have been thrown into the air - but at the moment it is hard to see a truly high-caliber name coming to Likud. This is a serious challenge for Netanyahu, who wants to upgrade the list - but it is possible that he will not have anyone to do it with.

Yashar

About 15 realistic places, the most of the existing parties, remained open on the Yashar list - and Eisenkot has been working in recent days on adding experienced Knesset members and ministers to the list, in order to add a shade of political seniority to his party alongside the new faces. This is the reason why former Knesset members Roi Folkman and Elazar Stern joined the party, and it is possible that we will see the entry of other figures with seniority in the Knesset.

The really big question is whether there is still a name that can join the party and be a real "game changer" - or whether Eisenkot will remain with his prominent trio at the head: himself, Shaul Meridor and Yoram Cohen.

Beyachad

Bennett and Lapid are expected to hold personal conversations in the coming days with the MKs of Yesh Atid and the new joiners to "Beyachad" - and will inform them of their position on the list. With Beyachad standing at about 15 mandates in the polls, this is indeed a significant drama: about three-quarters of the incumbent Knesset members of Yesh Atid will not enter a realistic place for the next Knesset.

Bennett, on the other hand, is dealing with the opposite problem - it is not clear who his eight will be and to what extent the names he has brought so far are enough to create a quality list in the realistic places. Here too, they will try to bring a significant "game changer" in the coming days - although it is hard to see who will be able to do so.

The Democrats

The list of Yair Golan is already effectively closed after the primaries in the party, and following his decision to waive the reservations reserved for him. Meanwhile, the Democrats have begun to collect signatures from the party's candidates for the benefit of the list for the Knesset - which will be led by Golan and the incumbent MKs Lazimi, Kariv and Reitman who were elected at the top of the list.

Yisrael Beytenu

Facing the assembly of the Yisrael Beytenu list, Avigdor Lieberman has a problem that can be cautiously called a "positive headache". In the last year, he has added dozens of names, known and less known, to his party - and now he will have to decide who will be the few who will be placed in a realistic place, alongside the incumbent and veteran Knesset members. The party's organizing committee will meet in the coming days and decide what the list will be.

Otzma Yehudit

The polls that predict a significant jump in the number of mandates for Ben Gvir, to the point of approaching a double-digit number, also say that he will have to upgrade the list.

After the departure of Almog Cohen, 6 incumbent MKs remained in Otzma Yehudit - and Ben Gvir will look for at least 3 or 4 significant names to join his list. It is possible that the problem will be reduced if Netanyahu forces a right-wing union, but Ben Gvir, who will likely add his chief of staff Hanamel Dorfman to the list - will in any case have to bring new figures, including women (only one is currently serving in the Knesset on behalf of Otzma Yehudit).

Religious Zionism

The expected entry today of Ofer Winter into the political system creates a significant problem for Smotrich, who was already in danger of not passing the threshold - and now the number of MKs he will be able to bring into the next Knesset is shrinking even more. It is hard to see Smotrich bringing other significant names besides those existing ones that were elected in the limited primaries in the party (Minister Orit Strock, MKs Simcha Rothman and Zvi Sukkot and Zvika Mor, father of the October 7 survivor Eitan Mor) - but it is possible that a forced union of his with Winter will lead to a technical reservation of some of the names on the Likud list, and thus allow him breathing room.

Ra'am

Last weekend, the Ra'am conference met - and chose the list for the next Knesset, which will be identical in order to the current one. Also approved was the clause that will allow the addition of Yoav Segalovitz to the party, and he is expected to be reserved in the second place. Abbas intends Segalovitz for the position of Minister of Internal Security, and at the same time negotiations are taking place on the principles to which Abbas will commit as part of the connection - including, among other things, recognition of a Jewish and democratic state, acceptance of the values of the Declaration of Independence and a commitment to military or national service for the entire population.

Hadash-Ta'al-Balad

After many months of negotiations, mutual explosions and quarrels - the representatives of the Arab parties finally put their ego aside, and decided to unite with the goal of increasing the voting percentages in the Arab society. The list will eventually be composed of five representatives of Hadash, three of Balad and two of Ta'al - and if it receives less than 9 mandates, a rotation will take place between the Hadash representative and Tibi's Ta'al representative, with the goal of ensuring him a representation of 2 MKs at a certain stage in the term.

Shas and United Torah Judaism

Despite the growing public criticism against the Haredi parties - no dramatic change is expected in their lists for the Knesset. In Shas, two significant resignations were recorded (Yaakov Margi and Moshe Arbel), but it does not seem that apart from that the list will undergo a significant facelift - perhaps point-by-point at the request of Rabbi Yitzhak Yosef who finally reached a compromise and understandings with Deri.

In United Torah Judaism, no change is expected either, after the Admor of Gur decided to send Goldknopf for another term. The only change that may change is who will stand at the head: according to the rotation agreement between Goldknopf's Agudat Yisrael and Gafni's Degel HaTorah, now it is the latter's turn to stand at the head of the list and open the "zipper" between Aguda and Degel.

Third Block Parties

In the parties of Ardan, Gantz and Chili Tropper, the situation is much more complicated. In the coming days, a decision is expected to be made one way or another regarding a significant union, with the understanding that running separately will necessarily lead to burning votes below the threshold - and to no representation for any of the third block parties. In the event that the contacts between Gantz and Ardan succeed, it is possible that Chili Tropper will eventually decide to join Gadi Eisenkot, but in any case - the question that remains in dispute is who will stand at the head of the list.