When is Israel expected to lose the 'Zionist majority'?

In a press conference of the 'Miluimnikim' (Reservists) party, chairman Yoaz Hendel warned that the situation is dire and action must be taken: 'If we do not take dramatic action, we will remain stuck, and Israel will fall apart on us. An Arab sector lacking governance, Haredi shtetls without a state. We must not reach a situation where in 2048 there will be a non-Zionist majority here.'

A non-Zionist majority in just 22 years? Does this align with the numbers? Before we dive into the data, it is important to say that this statement will not receive a grade for two reasons: one - we will not enter into the question of the degree of 'Zionism' of one population group or another; two - Hendel did not explicitly state that this is what will happen, but hinted at such a possibility.

And now to the numbers. According to the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS), today the share of Arabs and Haredim in Israel's population stands at 35% (21% Arabs and 14% Haredim). In the CBS's medium forecast, which is commonly used, in 2048 the share of these groups will be 44%, less than a majority. A majority of these two societies will be reached only in 2062, with 50.2%.

But this is not the only forecast. The Institute for Haredi Strategy and Policy has its own forecasts, which have several advantages over the CBS forecast: they are more up-to-date, based on administrative data (instead of surveys), and include the factor of leaving and joining the Haredi society, which is not weighted in the CBS forecasts. The forecasts of the institute's deputy director of research, Dr. Eitan Regev, provide four scenarios depending on the fertility rate in the Haredi society.

To go as far as possible towards Hendel, we started by examining the forecast in which the average birth rate of Haredim in the years 2026-2048 is the highest — and identical to the current rate — which stands at 6.2 births on average. In such a case, in 2048 the population will include 15.8 million people, of whom 2.8 million are Haredim and 3.5 million are Arabs — only about 40%. By 2065, their share is expected to stand at about 45%.

However, according to Regev, the birth rate in the Haredi society is on a downward trend, and according to his estimate, it is expected to be between 5.4 and 5.8 births. In the case of 5.8, the share of Haredim and Arabs in 2048 should stand at 39% and in 2065 at about 44%. In the case of 5.4 births in the Haredi society, in 2048 the share of Haredim and Arabs together should reach 38% and in 2065 42%. The fourth, and lowest, scenario is 5 births in the Haredi society, which brings the share of Haredim and Arabs to 38% in 2048 and 41% in 2065.

And one more note towards the end. Every forecast is based on certain basic assumptions and examines a limited number of scenarios. But when dealing with the future, one must always take into account that there may be developments that have not been examined and that can lead to an unforeseen result. In our case, for example, an accelerated departure from the country of one of the population groups could tilt the result one way or the other.

On behalf of Yoaz Hendel, it was stated in response: 'According to the CBS, the expectation is that only 55% of the population will be from the Zionist society in 2048. This is a figure that is very close to losing the Zionist majority in the country. In my eyes, there is an existential danger here.'

Bottom line: According to the forecasts, by 2048 Arabs and Haredim together will constitute at most 44% of the population, and according to other, newer forecasts, 40% and less. According to one outdated forecast, they are expected to become a majority only in 2062.