Fear and loathing in the Palestinian Authority: Preparing for elections for the first time in 20 years

After 20 years, the Palestinian Authority and the PLO are planning to hold elections for the Legislative Council and the National Council on November 28, 2026. These are the two houses of parliament that are supposed to influence decision-making. However, PA Chairman Abu Mazen (Mahmoud Abbas) and his associates are working to engineer the results so that both houses remain under their control.

About two weeks ago, 90-year-old Abu Mazen announced the holding of elections for the PA Legislative Council, which will consist of 200 members. The minimum age for running is 23, and the representation rate for women is set at 20% in each list. The threshold for entry is set at only one percent of the total votes cast. However, one of the clauses in the election decree is intended to thwart a direct run by Hamas and other terrorist organizations.

According to the clause, every candidate for the council is required to swear allegiance to the PLO as the sole legitimate representative of the Palestinians, to its political program, and to the relevant international resolutions. This means indirect recognition of the agreements signed with the State of Israel, including recognition of its existence. As expected, Hamas spokesman in Gaza, Hazem Qassem, announced his opposition to Abu Mazen's decree. According to him, "These decisions are an attempt to tailor every step to the leadership that holds power and to perpetuate the distorted reality."

Will Hamas run a list?

In the 2006 Palestinian Legislative Council elections, Hamas won a victory over Fatah. Its party won 74 seats out of 132, compared to Fatah, which settled for 45 seats. Following this, a government was established led by Ismail Haniyeh (later the leader of the organization who was eliminated).

But a governance crisis developed very quickly, culminating in Hamas taking control of the Gaza Strip by force in 2007. Since then, no elections have been held and the parliament has been suspended. Hence, in Ramallah, they are determined to prevent the recurrence of the scenario of a Hamas victory in the elections.

Despite the aforementioned clause, Hamas and other organizations are considering influencing the elections in other ways. One option is to run a list of candidates identified with Hamas, but not officially members of the terrorist organization. A second option is to instruct Hamas supporters to support an existing list in exchange for various understandings. There is, of course, the option to boycott the voting process. The final decision will be in the hands of Khalil al-Hayya, who was recently elected leader of the terrorist organization.

Hamas is not Fatah's only rival in the elections. For example, a new youth party called "New Path" (Masar Jadid) aims to lead reforms for the democratization of the Palestinian Authority. One of the party's leaders is a former Fatah activist named Samir al-Sinjlawi. However, the party's electoral strength is unclear and has not yet been tested in public opinion polls.

However, the engineering of the Palestinian elections does not end with the clause against Hamas. According to Palestinian sources, Abu Mazen is promoting a change whereby the number of Legislative Council members appointed through elections will again be 132 and not 200. According to the sources, the reason for this is fear in Ramallah of losing control over the Legislative Council and the strengthening of factions not loyal to Abu Mazen.

The change, if implemented, will lead to the National Council (the PLO parliament) being composed as follows: 132 members elected to the PA Legislative Council, 68 members appointed by Chairman Abu Mazen, and 150 members to be chosen from the Palestinian diaspora abroad. In other words, in any case, control of the upper parliament will remain in the hands of Abu Mazen and his associates.

The designated successor

Elections for the PA Chairman are supposed to take place in early 2027, but a specific date has not yet been set. Abu Mazen's designated successor is his deputy and acting replacement, Hussein al-Sheikh. Given that Abu Mazen will run again, his deputy will of course forgo running. But in the event that Mahmoud Abbas decides to resign unexpectedly, it is likely that Hussein al-Sheikh will be the candidate.

In any case, according to Palestinian sources, the one who is expected to run is the life-sentenced prisoner Marwan Barghouti, who is sitting in prison for leading attacks during the Second Intifada. Against this background, quite a few Palestinians doubt the possibility that elections for the position or for the houses of parliament will take place at all.