OECD Forecasts 2.9% Global Growth in 2026 Amid Geopolitical and Energy Shocks
The OECD projects global growth at 2.9% in 2026 and 3.0% in 2027, warning of Middle East disruptions, resurgent inflation, and high interest rates balanced by AI investments.
The OECD has published its updated economic outlook report, presenting a complex and tense picture of the global economy under the title "Coping with Continuous Shocks." According to the updated forecast, global growth is expected to stand at 2.9 percent in 2026 and rise only moderately to 3.0 percent in 2027.
The organization notes that while the global economy exhibits a certain degree of resilience, a continuous chain of geopolitical, climatic, and financial shocks prevents a genuine recovery.
Energy Markets and Inflation Pressures
At the center of the report's warnings is the security escalation in the Middle East and its direct consequences for the global energy market. Disruptions in key shipping and supply routes in the Persian Gulf and Egypt, particularly the Straits of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, have led to a sharp rise in oil and natural gas prices.
To these are added a surge in refining costs and a significant increase in maritime transport prices. OECD economists warn that a relative shortage of energy inventories, mainly in Europe, constitutes a powder keg that refuels inflationary pressures.
"The ongoing supply chain disruptions and energy price volatility threaten to stall central bank monetary easing cycles globally."
The AI Boom and Climate Risks
On the other hand, the report identifies the artificial intelligence gold rush as the primary factor that prevented an even sharper slowdown. Extensive investments in AI infrastructure, the establishment of data centers, and the acquisition of advanced chips—mainly in countries like the United States, South Korea, and Japan—provide significant momentum to global trade and GDP.
However, the OECD does not hesitate to raise a warning flag, emphasizing that if the profit yields of technology companies fail to meet high market expectations, it could lead to a decisive correction in stock prices and harm future investments.
If that were not enough, the report also directs attention to immediate climate risks. The organization warns against a powerful El Niño phenomenon expected to erupt at the end of the year, which could cause heavy damage to agricultural crops worldwide and trigger another wave of price hikes in food.
