Nvidia worries investors: The unusual figure in the chip giant's reports

Sylvia Jablonski, Chief Investment Officer at Defiance, argues that developments in the US bond market over the past week highlight that even when the US Treasury intervenes to improve market functioning and provide liquidity, it cannot solve the underlying factors putting pressure on yields.

According to her, the intervention initially succeeded in lowering yields, but the effect was short-lived. "The long end of the yield curve remains volatile, and the term premium will remain high as long as we do not see significantly lower inflation, a slowdown in growth, or an increase in confidence in the fiscal situation," she says.

According to Jablonski, this is a significant development for the stock market as well: "A yield on 10-year US government bonds approaching 5% makes bonds a real competitor to stocks and raises the discount rate for long-term growth assets." In other words, even if the stock market continues to benefit from corporate profit growth, a high-yield environment over time makes the equation for investors more challenging.

Alongside the pressure in the bond market, Jablonski sees the latest results from Nvidia as an indication that the investment cycle in AI infrastructure is still far from over. According to her, the important point in the reports is not just the fact that the company beat forecasts, but the continued strong demand for data centers and signs that investments in AI infrastructure have not yet peaked. She emphasizes that the thesis is expanding beyond the chip manufacturers themselves: "The opportunity is expanding beyond Nvidia to memory, communications, optical components, electricity, cooling, and a long list of companies benefiting from the establishment of AI infrastructure."

However, Jablonski warns that expectations from Nvidia are already particularly high. "At Nvidia's scale, investors demand not only strong results but also continued acceleration in growth and guidance." According to her, investors should now also monitor the rise in infrastructure costs, the return that tech giants are getting on their AI investments, and the increasingly complex financing structures around the establishment of data centers.

Paul Marino, Chief Revenue Officer at Themes ETFs, points to a fundamental change in how the market relates to Nvidia's reports. According to him, the stock has fallen after six of the company's last eight report releases, including four consecutive reports in which the stock fell, despite revenue almost doubling year-over-year.

"This is the real disconnect," says Marino. "Investors have stopped treating Nvidia's results as new information on the AI trajectory and have started to see them as a belated confirmation of the CapEx expenditures that other companies have already committed to." According to him, the question that currently worries the market is not whether Nvidia can continue to grow. "We all know it can," he notes. The question is whether cloud giants can continue to fund capital expenditures at the current pace without hurting profit margins, free cash flow, and their balance sheets.

Marino also points to the growing fear of circular financing of AI infrastructure, in which an increasing part of investments is financed through supplier financing and debt, and not just from operating cash flow. According to him, the Nvidia report currently serves less as fuel for a new rally and more as a "mirror" reflecting the concerns that already exist in the market regarding the sustainability of the investment cycle in AI infrastructure.

"To see another leg of gains in tech stocks, the market will probably need a different kind of catalyst: proof that AI spending is translating into stable revenues and improvement in profit margins even beyond the chip manufacturers, or clearer signs that the rate of growth in capital expenditures is moderating to sustainable levels," he concludes.

Bitcoin against the $82,750 test: "A breakout will open the way to 97 thousand"

In the crypto arena, Violeta Todorova, a research analyst at Leverage Shares, identifies a significant technical change after Bitcoin jumped by almost 40% from the July low, which stood at $57,800, to a peak of $81,350 in August.

According to her, $82,750 is now the most important level for Bitcoin. This is the peak recorded in May, so a clear breakout above it would be, from her perspective, confirmation that the downtrend that began in October 2025 has ended.

Todorova notes that the rise was supported by strong inflows into ETFs, the closing of short positions, the weakening of the dollar, and renewed fears of currency devaluation. Technical indicators have also improved, with the RSI index returning for the first time in about ten months to the range identified with a bull market.

However, she warns of a correction in the short term after the sharp rise. "Bitcoin has reached a state of significant overbought, so we expect a period of pullback or consolidation before the next move." If Bitcoin manages to break the $82,750 level, Todorova estimates that $97,000 becomes the next medium-term target.

Todorova simultaneously identifies a broader change in the market: the enthusiasm for AI still exists, but investors now demand more significant economic evidence. According to her, the reporting season has become a "tale of two markets." Companies that manage to generate new revenues through AI continue to receive high premiums, while companies with limited exposure to AI are measured mainly by cash flow, valuation, and operational performance.

Despite this, she emphasizes that the corporate picture is broader than technology. "The strength in earnings is no longer limited to a handful of tech giants," she says, pointing to strength in energy, finance, and industry.

According to her, one of the important developments is that AI itself is starting to seep into the real economy: data centers need electricity, networks, cooling systems, construction, industrial equipment, and infrastructure. "This creates second-order beneficiaries throughout the economy," she says. However, Todorova marks a point of weakness that requires monitoring: the American consumer. According to her, recent results from retail companies point to a consumer who is becoming more selective, while rising energy prices could continue to put pressure on disposable income.

What will decide the markets in the coming week?

According to Todorova, the central focus will now shift to macro data in the US, led by the employment report to be published on Friday. After an unexpected decrease of 23,000 jobs was recorded in July, investors will try to understand whether this is temporary weakness or the beginning of more significant deterioration in the labor market.

During the week, Chicago activity indices, purchasing managers' indices, unemployment claims data, and other data will also be published, which will try to answer one central question: is the American economy cooling enough to justify monetary easing, without inflation remaining too high? In the corporate sector, Todorova marks Broadcom as one of the most important reports, especially after Nvidia's strong data. According to her, the market will test whether demand for AI chips continues to be strong or is starting to cool. Palo Alto Networks, MongoDB, and Dell will also be in focus, as their reports may provide further indication of the strength of investments in AI infrastructure and technology.

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Bottom line: three markets, three warnings

The three experts point from different directions to the same central development: the markets are still enjoying strong growth, but the investors' margin of error is shrinking. Jablonski sees AI as a growth engine that is still far from exhausted, but warns that US bonds are becoming a more significant alternative to stocks as yields approach 5%. Marino identifies a change in perception towards Nvidia and AI: investors are no longer satisfied with proof that companies are spending huge sums on AI, but want to see a clear economic return on investment.

Todorova identifies in Bitcoin a technical test that may open the door to $97,000, but simultaneously warns that the sharp rise in the markets comes with higher levels of sensitivity to macro data and the cost of money. For investors, the message for the coming week is clear: Nvidia will test the strength of the AI engine, employment data will distinguish between a slowdown and weakness, and US bonds will continue to determine how expensive it will be to bet on the continuation of the rally.