Civilian energy or a ticking bomb? Behind the agreement that worries Israel
In episode 27 of the 'Money Axis' podcast, experts discuss the US-Saudi civilian nuclear agreement. Despite Saudi Arabia's close ties to the US, the deal raises significant security concerns in Israel.
This week, in episode 27 of the 'Money Axis' podcast, we discussed the implications of the agreement between the USA and Saudi Arabia that allows the Saudis to establish a civilian nuclear program. Israel received the news with surprise, and although it concerns a country close to the Americans and President Donald Trump, the concerns are naturally significant.
'It is a framework agreement, a legal document, but it does not yet determine the specific details – the construction of the reactors, the method of supervision, and the schedules. There are many unknown details,' says Doron Peskin, a Calcalist economic commentator. 'This agreement is supposed to reach Congress for approval, which has 90 days to review it. However, Donald Trump has veto power over the decision, so it is highly likely that the agreement will be approved.'
One of the issues that remains open is the supervision of the nuclear program and uranium enrichment. 'In the few reports that existed, it was claimed that Saudi Arabia did not give up on uranium enrichment on its territory, but on the other hand, Donald Trump issued a statement the next day according to which there will be no enrichment – and also linked the agreement to normalization with Israel,' says Peskin, clarifying that the agreement itself has not yet been published, making it difficult to know the exact details. 'Ultimately, we do not know if these two clauses are included in the agreement or not. Donald Trump did declare this, but after the Donald Trump era in two and a half years, if these clauses are not anchored in the agreement, it is impossible to know what will happen.'
Saudi Arabia's main goal, despite being an oil power, is to reach nuclear capability for the benefit of energy efficiency, and it sees great importance in this for the long term. But of course, the concerns of Israel and neighboring countries stem from the fact that the knowledge could leak to the military industry.
'According to the data, Saudi Arabia produces about 60% of its energy from natural gas, about 38% from oil, and about 2% from renewable energies. In the Vision 2030 of Mohammed bin Salman, there was no mention of nuclear energy at all. So what changed? Saudi Arabia is now talking about a desire to build two nuclear reactors, and it is looking at the long term, not the coming years. It does need more energy and more income to realize the vision of Mohammed bin Salman, and there is indeed a need to look for more energy sources.'
And what is the American interest? The agreement anchors a certain priority for American companies to enter this new industry, but that is not the only interest. 'Saudi Arabia flirted in the past with Russia and China on the subject of nuclear energy,' says Peskin, 'and the USA of course prefers that it be the one taking part in this project.'
Despite all this, the agreement raises great concern, not only in Israel but also in other countries in the Middle East. 'Even if we accept that the Saudi nuclear program integrates into the economic vision of Saudi Arabia, one must think further ahead. We know Mohammed bin Salman and his closeness to the USA and Israel, but what will happen if in a decade or more someone less sympathetic arrives who decides otherwise? In the end, this program creates infrastructure, knowledge, a whole ecosystem. You can make the transition from civilian to military nuclear once you have created the right infrastructure. If we take as an example the agreement of the UAE, they signed a ban on self-enrichment, and therefore the concern regarding the UAE is less. Added to this is the statement of Mohammed bin Salman in the past who said: 'If the Iranians have nuclear weapons, Saudi Arabia will also have them.' Iran can definitely look at this agreement and say that there is no reason not to allow it enrichment if Saudi Arabia can do it.'
Donald Trump did link the agreement to normalization with Israel, but Saudi Arabia has previously stated that this cannot happen without a solution to the Palestinian issue. 'The Saudis have so far not responded to this detail in the agreement, but if it is indeed anchored in it, the Saudis are in trouble,' says Peskin. 'This silence hints that it has a problem with this clause. I do not see how they overcome this, but one must wait and see what will happen in Congress and what the details of the agreement are. At the moment, I do not think that normalization is within reach thanks to this nuclear agreement.'
