Musk promises: SpaceX will reach $3.5 trillion in revenue by 2033

Elon Musk, CEO of SpaceX, has raised the bar for expectations from his company. In response to an analyst review by Morgan Stanley, he wrote on the X platform that, according to his estimate, the company could reach annual revenues of about $3.5 trillion as early as 2033 — seven years earlier than the date reached by the bank's own model, which points to 2040.

To understand the magnitude of the promise, it is worth looking at the present. In the second quarter, SpaceX's revenue jumped 92% to $7.81 billion, of which $4.29 billion came from the connectivity sector (Starlink), $2.56 billion from artificial intelligence operations, and $962 million from the space business.

At this rate, this amounts to annual revenue of about $31 billion. The implication: to meet Musk's target, the company needs to multiply its revenue by 112 within seven years — an average annual growth of about 96%. Even in the technology world, such a pace sustained for seven years in a row is almost non-existent.

While Musk talks about trillions, the stock itself tells a much more modest story. Since its IPO on June 12, 2026, SPCX has had a difficult path: it climbed to a peak of $225.64, but then retreated and returned to the $141.5 area last Friday — not much above the price at which it went public ($135). Anyone who bought at the peak suffered a loss of about 40%.

The gap between management's statements and market pricing is exactly what is occupying investors now: does the pullback reflect healthy caution, or is the market simply not buying the vision?

Analyst Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley actually recommends that investors look ahead. He maintains an "Overweight" recommendation and a target price of $300 — a target that implies an increase of about 120% from the current stock price, meaning more than a doubling.

At the center of his thesis is SpaceX's new flagship project: a launch complex in South Louisiana with an investment of $100 billion, construction of which is expected to begin in 2027 and the first launch is planned for 2029. Jonas argues that investors are missing the real message behind the move: not just another launch base, but infrastructure for "orbital computing" — artificial intelligence data centers in space.

According to the bank's model, from 2032 onwards, launches for this purpose will account for more than 80% of all the company's launches.

This entire calculation depends on one thing: a sharp drop in the cost of reaching orbit. The Starship spacecraft carries five times the payload of the Falcon 9 and is designed for full reusability. Morgan Stanley estimates that the launch cost will drop to about $500 per kilogram by 2030, below $200 by 2035, and below $150 by 2040 — compared to about $1,000 per kilogram for the Falcon 9 today.

The bank even calculates that every additional gigawatt of computing power in space could add about $27 to the stock, about a fifth of its current price.

Alongside the enthusiasm, it is important to remember the other side. SpaceX is trading at a forward P/E ratio of more than 1,600, a ratio that is nothing short of imaginary. The project in Louisiana does not fund itself, and the Morgan Stanley model assumes that the company will rely on net debt raising of about $80 billion per year on average. Capital expenditure is also huge: in the second quarter alone, the company invested about $18.37 billion.

For the Israeli investor — whether exposed to the stock through a training fund, provident fund, or a managed portfolio exposed to American technology stocks — the bottom line is simple: it is worth ignoring the $3.5 trillion headline and following the milestones that will determine if the vision is even realistic.

The three metrics that Jonas highlights are the frequency of Starship launches, the speed of returning spacecraft to orbit, and the growth rate in AI revenue. If these accelerate, Musk's forecast will look less imaginary. If not, the 2033 target will remain mostly a bold promise on X.