American investment firm: "A 30% move in Bitcoin is expected within two months"

The American investment firm Fundstrat, led by Tom Lee, estimates that Bitcoin is facing a move of about 30% or more in the next two months, precisely because of the unusual quiet prevailing in the market.

In a letter to clients published this week by Sean Farrell, head of digital asset strategy at the firm, it was written that the currency's volatility over the last 30 days was among the lowest ever recorded — and that historically, such periods of calm tend to end in an explosion in one direction or another.

The logic behind the forecast is based on a recurring pattern. Farrell examined eight previous cases where Bitcoin's volatility was as low as the current situation, and discovered that each one was followed by a significant price move.

"The magnitude of the historical moves is striking. Across previous observations, the median move in absolute terms over the following 60 days was about 30%," he wrote.

The exact figure he calculated was a median shift of 30.2% within two months.

And here is the critical point for anyone considering exposure. The signal indicates the size of the expected move, not its direction. Of the eight cases Farrell examined, four ended in a rise and four in a decline — an equal split that leaves investors without a clear indication.

The publication came after Bitcoin rose by more than 2% on Monday, following a period in which it lagged behind other currencies. Farrell estimated that a significant portion of the rise was due to the closing of short positions, meaning traders who bet on a decline were forced to exit the trade.

He warned against reading the moment as the start of a sustained rally: according to him, similar events of short-covering in early June and early July pushed the price up temporarily, but the move faded. However, Farrell described the latest move as "constructive."

What might break the consolidation? Farrell points to the US bond market. Long-term real yields are climbing to annual highs, and according to him, this is a real risk for risk assets in general and for crypto in particular. If the trend of rising yields continues, it could be the catalyst that breaks Bitcoin's narrow trading range — and not necessarily to the upside.

The backdrop for the move is a difficult year. Bitcoin has lost about 27% since the beginning of 2026 and is trading around $63,000, about 50% below the October 2025 peak in the $126,000 area. For Israelis holding crypto exposure — directly, through ETFs, or within investment portfolios — the meaning is simple: the coming period could be particularly volatile, and those entering now should prepare for the possibility of a sharp move in either direction.

It is important to remember that Fundstrat is an investment firm with a distinctly optimistic stance on crypto: founder Tom Lee holds a long-term target of $200,000 to $250,000 for Bitcoin. Farrell himself sees the near term as a phase of consolidation around $60,000 to $65,000.