Iran threatens: Syria and Turkey build military power behind the back of the USA
The Revolutionary Guards have shifted their strategy in an attempt to drive up oil prices. The goal is to drag the US into a partial renewal of a war that is unpopular with the American public. Missiles were fired at the UAE for the first time in two months, with further attacks expected across the Gulf.
In the US, the Gulf, and Israel, a shift in Iran's offensive policy is being identified following the failure of diplomatic contacts and the tightening of US naval and economic blockades.
First focus: Hormuz
Diplomatic sources and assessment bodies estimate that Iran will escalate attacks and military activity. A primary focus is the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran intends to increase interference with the passage of tankers and ships.
President Donald Trump has claimed that Hormuz is fully open, that all naval mines have been cleared, and even announced the annexation of the strait via social media. The blockade is achieving its goals: US Energy Secretary Chris Wright announced that Iranian oil exports have dropped to zero. Meanwhile, oil exports from Gulf states have largely resumed via pipelines and tankers.
In response, the Revolutionary Guards have shifted from defense to offense, attempting to trigger a rise in oil prices and drag the US into a renewed conflict. On Tuesday, this escalation manifested in missile fire at the UAE—the first such attack in nearly two months. Iran also attempted to hijack two UAE tankers. Further attacks against other Gulf nations are expected.
Second focus: The octopus's arms
Iran is planning attacks through proxy organizations. The Houthis are intensifying strikes against Saudi Arabia's oil industry. In Israel, there is concern that Iran may attempt to activate Hezbollah as part of this escalation. However, estimates suggest Iran is not seeking full-scale war and certainly wishes to avoid renewed Israeli strikes.
Economic indicators point to a collapse within Iran: many gas stations in peripheral areas have closed due to fuel shortages, and there are reports of severe shortages of medicine and medical equipment nationwide.
Coordination between Syria and Turkey
According to information provided by a senior official to Fox News, Israel has shared intelligence regarding a military reorganization in Syria conducted in cooperation with Turkey, which is being hidden from the US. These reports suggest that Turkey is using Assad for its own ends, and he is unable to resist. The strike today at the Idlib airport was intended to signal to Assad and the Turks that Israel is aware of these activities and is capable of acting to thwart preparations against it.
