Iran defies: "75% of capability survived – the UAVs are a nightmare for the enemy"

Iran claimed on Wednesday that most of its missile and UAV capabilities survived the attacks carried out by the USA and Israel and remain operational. These statements were made against the backdrop of a significant gap between the situation as presented by Tehran and the assessments provided by the American administration regarding the extent of the damage to the Iranian military array.

The Deputy Commander of the Iranian Army for Operational Affairs, Brigadier General Ali Reza Sheikh, told the official Iranian news agency IRNA that the American and Israeli attacks were not as effective as the USA claims. According to him, "more than 75% of Iran's missile and UAV capabilities remained intact and ready." Sheikh added that Iran's UAV fleet "has become the enemy's nightmare."

The statement by the senior Iranian official stands in direct contrast to the assessments presented by US President Donald Trump. While Tehran claims that more than 75% of its capability remains operational, Trump stated last month that, according to American assessments, Iran has only a small fraction of its original missile stock left.

In an interview with NBC News in July, Trump said that the USA knows the locations of Iranian UAVs and their production facilities. "We know where their UAVs are, and we know where their UAV factories are. Most of the UAV factories were destroyed… and most of the missile production areas were destroyed," he said.

Trump estimated the volume of the remaining missile stock at only about 21%–22%. "They have some missiles. They have some UAVs," Trump said. "Maybe 21%, 22% of their missiles." This represents a significant gap between the two versions: Iran claims that over 75% of its missile and UAV capabilities are still ready, while Trump estimates that Tehran has little more than a fifth of its former missile capacity left. It is important to note that the data presented by both sides do not necessarily measure the same metrics, and no independent assessment is currently available.

Alongside the war of narratives, there is another indicator of damage: the number of missile launches by Iran dropped sharply in the first weeks of the conflict. This significant decrease in the launch rate may indicate that the USA and Israel successfully hit Iranian missile sites, though it does not provide an exact count of remaining stocks.

The discrepancy between the data is significant because it touches on a central question of the conflict: the extent to which the attacks succeeded in damaging Iran's ability to manage a campaign using missiles and UAVs. From Tehran's perspective, the claim that 75% of capabilities remain operational is intended to project an image of resilience.

The American message is the opposite. According to Trump, a large part of the Iranian production array was damaged, most UAV factories and missile production areas were destroyed, and the remaining missile stock was reduced to about a fifth of its previous volume.

The gap between these two assessments is too large to be treated as a marginal dispute. If the Iranian version is close to reality, Tehran still holds the lion's share of its fire capability. If the American assessment is more accurate, the Iranian array has absorbed a much deeper hit, and its attrition capability has been significantly reduced.

Statements from Tehran are not limited to military capabilities. Mohammad Reza Naqdi, a senior advisor to the commander of the Revolutionary Guards, raised the possibility of a prolonged campaign against the USA, aiming to extend the war until the end of Trump's term in the White House to create deterrence through attrition.

"We need to achieve deterrence so that the enemy will never dare to attack us," Naqdi said. He also claimed that the USA has failed in its central goals of overthrowing the leadership and dismantling Iran, describing American conduct as confused and lacking a clear strategy.

Meanwhile, Trump presented a completely opposite picture of Iran's military and economic situation. He claimed that the USA now has absolute control over the Strait of Hormuz, describing the naval blockade as a "steel wall." According to Trump, Iran no longer has effective naval or air forces, its soldiers are unpaid, the Revolutionary Guards are suffering, and the country's leadership is in uncertainty. Trump described Iran as a country of "fake news" and "talks without actions" that is no longer the "bully of the Middle East." He ended his remarks with: "Praise Allah!"