Iran with its back to the wall and threatening to ignite the northern border during the holidays
In Israel, preparations are underway for the possibility that Tehran, suffocating under a historic economic siege, will soon activate Hezbollah to disrupt holiday events and negotiations with Lebanon. While tankers are being attacked in the Strait of Hormuz and the Americans are planning another financial blow, the Iranian rial is collapsing to a low of 2.2 million per dollar. A special testimony from Mashhad reveals the despair on the street: "We haven't eaten meat for weeks, the government doesn't exist, and when the people can't take it anymore — change will happen."
In Israel, the assessment is growing that Iran, with its back to the wall due to the economic siege, will lead to an escalation in the coming weeks through Hezbollah.
Security and intelligence officials say that the Iranians are still afraid of a renewed intense war and therefore hesitate regarding a direct attack on Israel, but they are expected to activate Hezbollah. The goal is to disrupt the daily routine, harm holiday events, and derail the discourse between Israel and the Lebanese government. Hezbollah launched two explosive drones at IDF forces on the Ali-Taher ridge, but at this stage it is unclear whether this is a local incident related to the IDF's siege of the ridge or an escalation action under Iran's direction.
If the escalation scenario materializes, Israel will have to decide how to respond and where — whether only against Hezbollah, in the Dahiyeh in Beirut, or perhaps an action against Iran, which is sending the orders.
According to one of the Israeli officials, the issue was discussed with the United States at the political and military levels, and close cooperation is part of any Israeli response. Meanwhile, Iran is settling for attacks on Bahrain, Jordan, and Kuwait, which have less defensive and political capability than their neighbors in the Gulf.
The situation in Hormuz remains complex. Iran is under a hermetic siege and the USA is only partially succeeding in moving tankers along the Omani route. Iran managed to hit at least one tanker last night (Tuesday), two of whose crew members were killed. However, the Americans insist that the move is succeeding and tankers continue to leave.
Meanwhile, in Iran itself, the economic crisis is worsening: the Iranian rial has fallen to a new record low of about 2.2 million rials to the US dollar, continuing the sharp decline that has accelerated in the last two weeks since the announcement in Washington of the start of the economic war. The prices of basic products are rising every day, and on social networks in Iran, "empty pot" videos and harsh claims against the regime are being distributed. One of those that received millions of views was an empty pot presented by a police officer in uniform, a station commander, who harshly attacked the regime and its disregard for the situation.
"We have all become poor because of the war"
Yesterday, I held a conversation through a third party with an Iranian citizen from Mashhad, a civil servant, a father of two high school students. Here is a summary of his answers:
"It is first of all the matter of our basic needs that I cannot provide for my family. We haven't eaten meat for weeks, chicken once a week, and on the table mainly rice with very few additions. The car is standing by the house because there is no fuel and I don't have extra money to buy at an exorbitant price on the black market. Public transport is mostly paralyzed because there is no diesel for buses, and I walk to work, almost an hour each way. People are selling everything they have to fund the purchase of food and medicine. We have all become poor because of the war, and in practice, the government almost doesn't exist. Crime is also rising, mainly small thefts from food stores by hungry people. Even those who support the regime in principle no longer have arguments to justify its conduct. Why in the name of Allah don't they close the matter with Donald Trump? After all, they already reached an agreement with him. In the current situation, it is not a matter of supporting the government's policy on the nuclear issue or in Hormuz, nobody cares about that anymore, they are just trying to survive. When the people feel they can't take it anymore — change will happen."
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said this evening (Wednesday) that as part of expanding economic measures against countries and companies that have ties to Iran, Washington is considering imposing sanctions against airlines, maritime activity, and digital assets. "We are having intensive conversations with everyone who supports Iran," Bessent said in an interview with Fox News, adding that Washington "will systematically eliminate bad actors." A diplomatic source says that the US Treasury Department is currently mapping financial companies and banks that have worked to assist Iran in bypassing sanctions, and these will be disconnected from the American financial system.
