Iran on the brink of the abyss: The plan to bring the Ayatollah regime to its knees
The Donald Trump administration is expected to announce an unprecedented wave of sanctions designed to isolate Iran almost completely from global trade. The move includes maximum tightening of the naval blockade, a plan for American control of the Strait of Hormuz, and sanctions on companies and countries that trade with Tehran. At the same time, the US is working to seize the assets of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, including in the crypto space.
The announcement expected Monday by the Donald Trump administration regarding a new wave of sanctions against Iran is set to include measures in scopes and areas not seen before. Primarily, it threatens any country that trades with Iran in any field, not just oil, oil products, and weapons. In other words, this is an American threat of sanctions against anyone who trades with Iran in almost any field, in order to commercially cut it off from the world almost entirely.
Donald Trump has chosen economic warfare as the most effective way against Iran, with the stated goal of bringing it to its knees until it agrees to American conditions for ending the war. The strategic overarching goal is to bring the regime to critical weakness, which may also lead to its overthrow, as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent explicitly stated. This is to be achieved through the depletion of its resources and the creation of internal economic chaos that will cause civil unrest.
The sanctions will include tightening the naval blockade to the maximum level and expanding restrictions on the export of oil and its products and on the companies involved in this, to additional areas of trade and financial sectors. Among the steps to be taken: long-term planning by the US Navy for full control of the Strait of Hormuz, in order to tighten the blockade.
Sanctions also on those who trade with Iran
Furthermore, dramatic American sanctions are expected against companies and countries engaged in trade with Iran in a long list of products and sectors, except for those considered humanitarian, such as food and medicine. This poses a risk of imposing broad sanctions on many companies in Pakistan, China, Turkey, Russia, and more.
It is assumed that China and Russia, as states, will be less impressed by the sanctions. But their companies that trade with Iran and need business ties with the West and the US will be careful, or even cut off trade ties with the Islamist regime in Tehran.
At the same time, the US Treasury Department is greatly expanding its activity to seize Iran's financial assets and block them, both those held in banks and other financial institutions and those held in the crypto space. According to intelligence, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has transferred a significant portion of its assets to cryptocurrencies so that it can manage the continuation of international trade and prevent tracking and freezing.
The focus is on the huge economic corporation of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, "Khatam al-Anbiya," which controls almost half of Iran's economy. Hitting it directly affects the regime's ability to endure.
Iran's economy on the brink of the abyss
Already, Iran's economic situation is on the brink of the abyss. The fuel shortage is worsening every day, because although Iran is one of the largest oil producers in the world, it does not have enough refineries, and the stock of refined fuel for transport and power plants is running out. Private car owners receive an allocation of only 60 liters per month, and for every additional liter, the price is multiplied several times over.
From this area, the spread of chaos may begin, for example, in a strike by truck drivers together with workers in essential industrial plants whose wages have been cut. Wages are eroding, and for example, Ali Aslani, a senior official in the workers' councils, estimated that the average wage of a worker in Iran currently covers only 10 to 15 days of living.
The salary of a new worker is estimated at about 21.8 million tomans per month, a little more than 100 dollars, while the rent for an urban household can reach 28 million. The living basket of a family of four in large cities is estimated at 80 to 90 million tomans, but the average family income reaches half of that.
The public is trying to escape to gold, and the price of the "Imami" gold coin, which is used more and more in markets instead of banknotes, has risen by 5% in the last week. At the same time, the Governor of the Central Bank of Iran has expressed concern about a collapse, and Davood Rangi, Deputy Chairman of the Iran Chamber of Commerce, stated that the country will not have a sufficient stock of essential goods for more than three months. According to him, Iran is particularly dependent on the import of food products, including wheat and corn.
China is Iran's largest trading partner, and it is responsible for about a third of the country's foreign trade that is not related to oil. Until before the war, China purchased about 90% of Iranian crude oil. Chinese data estimate the volume of bilateral trade not related to oil at less than 823 million dollars during the first four months of the war (from March to June) — a 75% drop in the volume of trade compared to the previous year.
Trade with major partners has plummeted
Trade with some of Iran's other main partners has also dropped sharply. The United Arab Emirates, Iran's second-largest trading partner, announced last week a complete cessation of trade with it. Official data from Turkey show that Turkish exports to Iran fell by almost half between March and June, to about 716 million dollars, while imports from Iran fell by 37%, to 907 million dollars. India recorded a similar decline: its exports to Iran fell by about 60% to about 150 million dollars, and due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the supply of raw materials for medicines and medical equipment has stopped completely.
