Tankers ignore Iran: control over the Strait of Hormuz is slipping from Tehran's hands

Iran is losing its grip on the Strait of Hormuz, as more than 80% of the vessels that crossed it in the last two weeks chose the Omani route under the protection of the US Navy, according to data from the maritime tracking company Kpler published by CNN. This shift prevents Tehran from collecting transit fees and weakens its ability to control the strategic maritime route.

Data points to a dramatic change compared to the situation a month ago, when there was almost no ship traffic recorded on the Omani route, which is approved by the UN and which Iran opposes. Although Tehran has attacked dozens of vessels attempting to pass along the northern coast of Oman, most ships are now ignoring its demands and crossing the strait while relying on US Navy protection.

"It seems more and more that Iran has lost, at least partially, control of the strait," said Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at Kpler.

The increasing use of the Omani route also harms Iran's ability to collect transit fees. Although the memorandum of understanding with the USA expired this week, allowing it theoretically to resume collection, Kpler reports that it is not succeeding in practice.

"The Iranian demand to collect transit fees is something that most parties in the Middle East do not want to comply with — and in practice have not complied with," explained Dan Pickering, founder of Pickering Energy Partners. According to him, the Omani route is the most logical option.

Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE have chartered giant VLCC-type oil tankers to transport oil out of the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz, then transfer it to other tankers outside the danger zone in the Gulf of Oman. To evade Iranian attacks, some turn off their transponders for weeks, making it difficult for tracking services to estimate traffic volumes accurately.

The USA, which maintains a significant military force in the area, reported oil transport volumes significantly higher than previous estimates. US Secretary of Energy Chris Wright stated last week that oil traffic through the strait and bypass routes reached about 15 million barrels per day, compared to an average of about 20 million barrels per day before the war.

Following these data, US President Donald Trump declared that his country has "total control of the strait." However, the continuation of Iranian attacks and the fact that oil flow has not yet returned to pre-war levels indicate that Washington does not hold full control either.

"If Iran's goal is to be 'in charge', it never had total control to begin with," said Pickering. "It seems its goal is to create deterrence to establish the perception that it is in control — and it is still succeeding in deterring." However, as tankers succeed in transporting larger quantities of oil, Iranian deterrence and control are eroding.

At the same time, Iran and Oman are holding talks in an attempt to restore freedom of navigation in the strait without American involvement — a move that arouses the displeasure of Donald Trump. It is not yet clear how these talks will affect oil traffic and the balance of power in the region.

"I would treat all the information and headlines with reservation," concluded Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. "But it is definitely fair to say that Iran has lost some of the control of the strait."