The moves that weakened the US military, and the fear: Russia and China will exploit this
The war in Iran has forced the Pentagon to move ships and missiles from Europe and Asia to the Middle East, and the New York Times reports that there is growing concern in the West that removing weapons from these regions will influence the steps of Putin and Xi. Also: how the US administration intends to fill the shortages in weapons depots, and Ukraine's attempt to obtain interceptor missiles from Israel.
Will the continuation of the war in Iran and the depletion of the United States' missile and ammunition stocks negatively affect the geopolitical balance between Washington, Russia, and China? Official American sources told the New York Times that the war in Iran, which has been going on for about half a year, has forced the Pentagon to move missiles, ships, aircraft, and air defense units from Europe and Asia to the Middle East.
According to the report, American and Western officials expressed concern that the removal of weapons and forces from these regions will influence the decisions of Russia and China regarding the opening of a military conflict, which could lead to a confrontation with the United States as well. According to data in the possession of the New York Times, the US military has fired more than 1,500 Patriot interceptors since the beginning of the war, and fewer than 1,700 remain in stock. Even if the production rate is accelerated, it will take more than two years to make up for the shortages. There were also reports of a severe shortage of several types of long-range missiles, including ATACMS surface-to-surface missiles.
According to two sources familiar with the details, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Kane, warned Trump even before the war against further use of the already depleted stock. Trump decided to attack anyway, based on the assessment that the war would end quickly, but this assessment turned out to be wrong. CNN reported that General Kane is looking for an "exit path" from the war with Iran. According to three sources, Kane said in closed conversations with senior officials on Trump's team that the military options on the table for escalating the fighting could achieve the opposite result, and that air power is not expected to achieve the president's stated war goals.
The Ukrainian connection
Against the backdrop of the war in Iran, official sources told the New York Times that the United States has delayed the supply of weapons systems to "customers in Europe and Asia." It seems that Ukraine is currently suffering from the depletion of American weapons stocks. President Volodymyr Zelensky said this week that the number of air defense missiles that Western countries are transferring to his country has dropped this year to about a third of the amount supplied in 2025. Last Wednesday, Ukraine failed to intercept any of the 28 missiles that Russia launched in an attack that killed at least 17 people.
In a press conference in Belgrade, Zelensky addressed the issue of the shortage of interceptor missiles against the Russian ballistic threat and referred to Kyiv's attempts to purchase air defense systems from Israel. "We would also like to receive air defense from Israel," he said. "We would be willing to buy, but we still don't have that opportunity, even though we are in a dialogue." Meanwhile, according to Western intelligence estimates, Russia may test NATO's commitment to its members and attack a member country in the coming years.
Asia and bureaucratic challenges
Regarding the situation in Asia, the Pentagon has moved Tomahawk missiles and other long-range missiles kept for a potential war with China to the Middle East, as well as hundreds of advanced interceptors from South Korea. An American official said that the removal of defense systems from South Korea has made American forces there more vulnerable in the case of a war with North Korea.
Meanwhile, the US is trying to implement steps to fill the ammunition stock. The US military announced it is opening a series of firing ranges for private companies that develop missiles, UAVs, and other weapons. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll stated that the move "will shorten months and sometimes years of bureaucracy" which he says "is choking military contractors." The administration also intends to encourage small companies to enter the weapons industry.
Although the American military establishment is signaling clearly about the need to fill the weapons depots, the White House rejected the claims of a shortage. White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt told the New York Times that the United States has "more than enough firepower to carry out any action the president orders." Trump himself published an angry post this week in which he repeated the claim that reports about the shortage of weapons are not true, determined that the publications are "treasonous," and that whoever is responsible will be punished.
