Data contradicts Trump's claim that the Strait of Hormuz is "open" — and the warning: reserves are depleting
The President is attempting to project that the Strait of Hormuz is under American control, yet on the ground, very few ships dare to traverse it.
Only 14 vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, despite Donald Trump's assertion that the strait is open to traffic. While the US Navy is escorting a limited number of oil tankers, this has failed to change the broader situation in Hormuz. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that global oil reserves are depleting rapidly, with oil prices remaining high at approximately $88 per barrel.
"America has total control over the Strait of Hormuz. I think we will keep it! And there is nothing Iran can do about it. Praise Allah!" wrote US President Donald Trump on the Truth social network this past Wednesday.
However, the data paints a different reality. The Wall Street Journal reported that only 14 vessels crossed the strait on Tuesday, with the vast majority passing through the waterway currently under Iranian control. Traffic throughout July remained sparse, averaging 26 crossings per day compared to the 130 ships that passed through daily before the war. US Navy escorts have not yet proven to be a game-changing move in breaking the Iranian blockade.
The crisis has led the IEA to issue a public warning:
"The urgency of reopening the strait has increased, as oil reserves that were previously available are rapidly depleting."
According to the agency's latest report, oil stocks fell last month at a rate of 2.2 million barrels per day, with global stocks dropping below 7.9 billion barrels for the first time since April 2025. The global oil market is projected to face a deficit of 1.8 million barrels per day in the coming months, a figure significantly higher than the agency's July forecast.
While the current price of $88 per barrel is a sharp increase from the pre-war price of $73, it remains below the campaign peak of $120. The ongoing market deficit is expected to keep prices high, posing an economic challenge globally and specifically for President Trump as he looks toward the midterm elections in November.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi addressed the situation on X this morning:
"The US has been wrong many times over the years due to intelligence failures. An example of this is the war in Iran. Now, an even more serious miscalculation around the Strait of Hormuz."
Recent reports from The Wall Street Journal suggest that President Trump is considering declaring victory in the campaign against Iran if the strait is opened, even in the absence of a nuclear deal. While Iran and Oman are currently negotiating, Tehran is demanding far-reaching concessions, whereas the President maintains that economic pressure will ultimately force Iran to compromise.
