"The Jimmy Carter Effect": Iran's secret plan to collapse Trump
According to a report in The Guardian, Tehran is considering delaying contacts with Washington until the US midterm elections, hoping that the consequences of the war, oil prices, and public pressure will harm the Republicans and reduce Donald Trump's room for maneuver.
In Iran, they look less at the political clock and more at the US political calendar. According to a report in The Guardian, sources in Tehran estimate that extending negotiations with the Donald Trump administration may serve them not only on the nuclear front, but also on the American political front — as the crisis continues until the midterm congressional elections in November.
According to the report, in certain circles in Iran, political damage to Donald Trump is seen as an end in itself. The comparison that keeps coming up there is to former president Jimmy Carter, who was severely damaged by the hostage crisis at the US embassy in Tehran in 1979–1981. From the perspective of those circles, the longer the conflict continues, the more it will weigh on the American economy and deepen public fatigue with the war — thus support for the president may also be eroded.
Hostility toward Donald Trump in Iran is also personal. In Tehran, they do not forget his decision to withdraw from the nuclear deal in 2018, the sanctions he imposed on the country, and the elimination of Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani. According to the report, even during the funeral of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, repeated calls for revenge against the US were heard.
The hope: A Congress more hostile to Donald Trump
The most prominent sign of a possible strategy came from the words of Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi, who told the IRNA news agency that the transition to the second phase of negotiations on the nuclear program could take between two and four months, after a framework for regulating commercial traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is achieved. If this timeline is realized, Donald Trump may reach the midterm elections without a significant Iranian commitment on the nuclear issue, against the backdrop of the ongoing economic and political consequences of the war.
Jason Brodsky of the organization United Against Nuclear Iran estimated that such a scenario could lead to continued cycles of escalation between Washington and Tehran around the Strait of Hormuz. According to him, Iran is not interested in granting the Donald Trump administration a quiet period before the elections. The Mehr agency, affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards, also presented the situation as a political trap for the American president: if he continues the confrontation, he risks deepening economic and political pressure; if he retreats or chooses to reduce tensions, it could be perceived by his supporters as a concession on his promises.
In Iran, they are closely monitoring public opinion polls in the US and developments in the Democratic Party. According to the report, officials and media figures in Tehran link a possible decline in Donald Trump's popularity to oil prices, war costs, and American fears of another prolonged entanglement in the Middle East.
There are also those who hope that a Republican loss in the congressional elections will limit Donald Trump's ability to continue his hardline approach. Former Iranian diplomat Mostafa Zahrani estimated that such a loss could make it difficult for the president to return to a path of war and push him to take negotiations more seriously.
However, not everyone in Tehran is convinced that betting on Donald Trump's future weakness is the right move. Professor Nasser Hadian of the University of Tehran warned that waiting for the elections could turn out to be a mistake. According to him, the political weakening of Donald Trump could actually reduce his incentive to reach an agreement with Iran and increase his dependence on pressure from Israel and other parties.
This debate illustrates the Iranian dilemma: whether to exploit the current situation to reach a settlement, or to stall for time in the hope that American politics will do some of the work for them. Either way, according to the report, in Tehran they no longer view the US midterm elections as merely an internal event. From their perspective, November may become an integral part of the negotiations themselves — and another arena in the struggle against Donald Trump.
