2028 US Elections: Rubio surpasses Vance — and Democrats have a good reason to smile
2028 US Elections: A new poll shows Marco Rubio defeating Kamala Harris and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez with 48%, while J.D. Vance loses to Harris and shows weaker results in some scenarios. In the background, Donald Trump reportedly tends to support Vance as his political successor.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is performing better than Vice President J.D. Vance in a series of scenarios ahead of the 2028 US presidential election, according to a new national poll by Emerson College Polling. However, some of the most prominent names in the Democratic Party manage to overcome both in hypothetical matchups.
The poll shows that Rubio defeats former Vice President Kamala Harris and progressive Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, in both cases with a result of 48% to 43%. Vance, by contrast, beats Ocasio-Cortez 46% to 44%, but loses to Harris by four percent. Against California Governor Gavin Newsom, both Republicans lose, but Rubio narrows the gap to just two points.
The Democratic candidates showing the best performance are former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg and Senator Jon Ossoff from Georgia. Buttigieg leads both Vance and Rubio with an identical result of 49% to 44%, while Ossoff leads Rubio by three points and Vance by five. The Emerson institute itself noted that Rubio performs better than Vance in several scenarios, while Buttigieg, Ossoff, and Newsom are the strongest Democrats at this stage.
The data may fuel the growing debate within the Republican Party regarding the identity of President Donald Trump's political successor. Rubio has previously said he would not run if Vance seeks the party's nomination, while Vance announced he would make a decision about his political future after the midterm elections in November.
However, behind the scenes, it appears that Trump is leaning, at least at this stage, in favor of his vice president. The Washington Post reported in early August that Trump told donors at a private meeting at the White House:
"Ultimately, we have to pick J.D."
Nevertheless, sources in his circle emphasized that the president has not yet made a final decision and continues to evaluate Vance against Rubio.
The poll was conducted on August 16 and 17 among 1,000 likely voters, with a margin of error of about three percent. At the same time, it points to a challenging political environment for Republicans: 56% of respondents are dissatisfied with Trump's performance, compared to 40% who express satisfaction, and Democrats lead in the general vote for Congress by eight points.
