The political plan: Israeli withdrawal in exchange for action against Hezbollah?
Following the wounding of soldiers by a drone strike and Hezbollah's rehabilitation after Operation "Lion's Roar," the assessment is that a military solution alone is insufficient. A new proposal calls on the political echelon to enlist the US as an active partner, strengthen the Lebanese army, and turn Lebanon into an arena of competition against Tehran.
The negotiation process between Lebanon and Israel under the auspices of the United States poses a direct threat to Hezbollah. Iran views the rapprochement between the countries and potential security arrangements as a direct threat to its strategy. This strategy did not weaken after the "Lion's Roar" war (March/April 2026); rather, it strengthened the connection between the Shiite axis that begins in Iran and relies on regional proxies in Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon.
Hezbollah, with Iranian encouragement, is doing everything to sabotage the negotiations. The recent incident in which three soldiers of the Commando Brigade were seriously wounded by an explosive drone was a deliberate act that left no doubt regarding the perpetrators.
From Tehran's perspective, Hezbollah is not just a military resistance force. It is a mechanism that allows Iran to project power toward the Mediterranean, maintain a threat to Israel, and preserve political influence in Lebanon, serving as a tool for Iran's territorial continuity through Iraq toward Syria and Lebanon.
Iran will try to shift attention from the Hormuz negotiations to the Lebanese field to divert fire away from its borders. Israel must act wisely to avoid playing into Tehran's hands.
Israel, which during "Lion's Roar" anticipated a strategic success, now understands that the reality is different. Hezbollah quickly rehabilitated itself after the Nasrallah era, recovered its field units, and re-established infrastructure in southern Lebanon.
Conquering a security zone may have pushed Hezbollah back a few kilometers, but it is not a long-term solution. This must be acknowledged honestly.
What should Israel do?
Israel must use military force correctly, integrating it with political wisdom. I suggest five steps to avoid a Lebanese quagmire:
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Set a clear goal: a Lebanese monopoly on military force. Israel should show patience and deepen cooperation, viewing the success of the Lebanese army as an Israeli goal.
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Make the United States a partner in execution, not just a mediator.
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Offer Lebanon a "reverse deal": respond to every real step against Hezbollah with an Israeli withdrawal, reduced military activity, and support for the rehabilitation of southern Lebanon.
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Targeted strikes against Hezbollah: preserve deterrence while weakening the organization without strengthening its narrative among the local population.
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Turn Lebanon into an arena of competition with Iran: offer Arab countries, the US, and Europe a vision of a sovereign Lebanon living in peace with Israel. Initiate a regional political move.
An Israeli victory will come the day Lebanon decides it is a state, not an Iranian proxy. Israel must shift from being a reactive party to an initiator interested in solving the northern border issue through more than just military means.
The author is a Brigadier General (res.), former commander of the Air Defense Array, and currently a strategic consultant.
