The Hard Core: Iran Prepares for Prolonged Confrontation
As pressure mounts, the Iranian leadership is adopting a tougher, more defiant and offensive line. Tehran is preparing for a prolonged confrontation and escalation, determined to cement its positions even at a heavy economic cost.
The American naval blockade continues to exact a heavy economic price from Iran. Data recently published by Iranian economist Massoud Nili point to a significant deterioration in economic indicators. Between 2018 and 2026, the exchange rate jumped almost 50-fold, the price level rose by more than 19-fold, and 16 million people were added to the population living below the poverty line. About five million people were added to the working-age population, but the number of employed increased by only 400,000. In recent months, the official inflation rate crossed the 70 percent threshold, and the number of people employed in industry fell by about 630,000.
However, there is no evidence that the Iranian leadership intends to soften its positions to return to the memorandum of understanding with the USA. Moreover, a hardening of Iranian positions has been evident in recent weeks. Iran is no longer satisfied with the demand for the lifting of the naval blockade in exchange for the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. It now demands that American commitments from the June 2026 memorandum, including the unfreezing of funds and a significant easing of sanctions, be implemented as a prerequisite for opening the strait. Furthermore, Iran demands a ceasefire on other fronts, especially in Lebanon and the Palestinian arena.
Shifting Doctrine and Appointments
The series of appointments decided upon by Iran's leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, heralds a change in the security concept toward preparing for a prolonged confrontation and increasing offensiveness. These appointments, including Mohsen Rezaee as Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, reflect lessons learned from "Lion's Roar":
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The decision to merge the Khatam al-Anbiya emergency headquarters with the General Staff of the Armed Forces to improve decision-making.
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A shift to a more offensive doctrine. Khamenei demanded that the new commander of the Revolutionary Guards, Ahmad Vahidi, maintain readiness for "powerful offensive operations against the enemy." Senior advisor Mohammad-Reza Naqdi stated the organization must be prepared to move fighting to enemy territory.
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The appointment of Hossein Taeb, former head of the Revolutionary Guards' intelligence organization, as commander of the Basij. This points to an effort to improve preparedness for renewed protests and to strengthen control over the public space via a "popular intelligence network."
Tehran is determined to anchor its achievements, primarily control over the Strait of Hormuz and the ability to exact a heavy price from its Arab neighbors and American forces in the region. The Iranian leadership is prepared for a prolonged confrontation and escalation to ensure that the campaign ends not with a temporary ceasefire, but on the basis of recognition of Iranian deterrence capability.
Dr. Raz Zimmt is the director of the Iran and the Shiite Axis program at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS).
