The new trio in the Middle East: "When Iran attacks, Turkey and Pakistan will be in a very sensitive situation"
Many questions surround the agreement signed in Mecca. On paper, if Saudi Arabia is attacked, the burden of proof lies with Turkey and Pakistan. But will it really happen? "The Pakistanis do not want to get involved, and it is not certain that the Turks have the capabilities to give," said Dr. Yoel Guzansky from the INSS. These are the facets of the agreement, and what is likely behind Riyadh's rush to anti-Israeli countries.
"An attack on one of the three countries is considered an attack on all of them." This is how the joint defense agreement between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan, signed in the city of Mecca and dubbed the "Mecca Joint Defense Agreement," was described on Friday. The three countries defined the agreement as one that expresses a commitment to strengthening collective security and is intended to bolster deterrence against any hostile action.
Saudi Arabia tried to clarify that the agreement does not represent an intention to build a military axis, is not related to nuclear ambitions or an arms race, and does not come at the expense of relations with other Arab countries. However, the international community is still trying to analyze its true implications.
An "Unnatural Alliance"
"There is a lot of ambiguity surrounding this trio, which is not a natural one," explained Dr. Yoel Guzansky, a senior researcher and head of the Gulf program at the INSS, in a conversation with ynet. He noted that even the bilateral agreement between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, signed a year ago, is not absolute and is heavily dependent on Saudi financial support.
"Pakistan and Turkey are the weakest side of the triangle. This alliance is dictated by circumstances and is related to the weakening of Iran and the perceived rise of Israel. There is an alliance here intended to balance against Israel's power," the expert noted. Although this is not a military alliance against Israel, its orientation is anti-Israeli, which could distance Riyadh from normalizing relations with Jerusalem.
Unanswered Questions
Pakistan and Turkey are also part of the multinational maritime defense coalition established by Saudi Arabia to combat the Houthis in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. However, as Dr. Guzansky points out, in the event of a real Iranian threat, the situation for the allies will become extremely sensitive.
"On paper, if Saudi Arabia is attacked, the burden of proof lies with Turkey and Pakistan. But it is not certain that they have the air defense capabilities to provide to the Saudis. The Pakistanis are not eager to get involved in wars that are not theirs," Guzansky emphasized. The agreement lacks specific obligations, giving the countries wide room for maneuver.
The Iranian side has already responded to the signing. Ebrahim Rezai, a representative of Iran's National Security Committee, stated on X: "The Saudis must understand that an agreement on paper will not give them security. Fix your policy so that you do not have to beg for security from others."
