The Middle East reaches a boiling point: everyone is preparing for the next round

The Middle East is entering its most dangerous phase, not because anyone wants a war, but because too many actors are beginning to realize that the price of avoiding it may be higher than the price of the war itself. As of now, the USA and Iran are still in a prolonged confrontation, and attempts to reach understandings regarding the nuclear program, sanctions, and the Strait of Hormuz have failed to produce a stable arrangement.

Iran is in an almost impossible dilemma. The economy is eroding, American pressure is intensifying, trade channels and currency are shrinking, and the ability to present a strategic achievement to the public is disappearing. The USA announced the intensification of the economic campaign against Tehran. Here lies the danger: a regime in distress does not necessarily seek peace; sometimes it seeks a bargaining chip in negotiations.

Iran may try to initiate a limited move — using missiles, drones, militias in Iraq, Hezbollah, or the Houthis — not to defeat the USA and Israel, but to prove that it is still capable of disrupting the Middle East. Its goal will be to raise the price of the confrontation, create political pressure in Washington, and return to the negotiating table from a position of strength. Recent analyses point to Iran's preparations for expanding the campaign through its proxies in the region.

Ahead of the midterm elections in the USA, the question is not only what Donald Trump will do, but what the Iranians think he will not dare to do. If Tehran assesses that the American president will prefer a deal over a prolonged war, it might gamble on a controlled escalation. But if Washington concludes that economic pressure alone is not enough, it is possible that we will see another military move by the USA — not necessarily an invasion, but a series of strikes intended to erode Iran's missile capabilities, nuclear program, and military infrastructure, perhaps also strikes on energy facilities.

What will Israel do? It cannot afford a situation where Iran restores its capabilities under a ceasefire. If another round opens, Israel is expected to act faster, deeper, and more focused against the sources of the threat. Israel will prefer a short and intense war over a war of attrition in which the Israeli home front pays the price for months.

Lebanon could become a front again. Hezbollah has weakened significantly, but is still capable of raising the price of war. At the same time, Syria is becoming a new arena of struggle; the regime in Damascus is trying to establish sovereignty and prevent arms smuggling to Hezbollah, while Iran and its proxies are trying to preserve their strategic corridor.

In Yemen, the most surprising front could open. The Houthis are increasing activity against Saudi Arabia, and reports of strikes on Saudi targets point to a real danger of the renewal of a wider war. Iran understands well that the Houthis can hurt Saudi Arabia, disrupt trade routes, and raise the price of oil, without Iran itself having to fire the first missile.

In the European arena, the game is also changing. Europe will have to deal in the coming years not only with terror, but also with a more complex combination of ideological extremism, radicalization on the web, migration, crime, and the infiltration of terrorist elements. The challenge will be to fight radical Islamism without turning the struggle into a war against Islam or against millions of Muslims living on the continent.

Ultimately, the Middle East is not facing a question of "war or peace". The question is what kind of war will come, and when. Iran needs an agreement, but also an achievement. Donald Trump wants a deal, but not at any price. Israel wants to prevent Iran from recovering. Saudi Arabia wants quiet, but will not agree to live under a Houthi threat. Syria and Lebanon are trying to escape the Iranian nuisance.

My assessment is that the coming months will be months of nerves games, negotiations, and threats, but also of frantic preparations in case diplomacy fails. In the Middle East, the problem is not that the players do not know how to stop a war. The problem is that each of them is trying to ensure that the other side will be the one to stop first.