Hamas under pressure from the ballot box - and now it is trying to build a front against Fatah | Anna Barsky
In closed discussions, the Shin Bet warns that due to regulations making it difficult to compete in the elections at the end of November, Hamas is trying to create partnerships with Palestinian factions to undermine Fatah's rule.
In the Shin Bet, they are warning in closed discussions about a significant strengthening of Hamas activity in the West Bank ahead of the elections for the Palestinian Legislative Council, which will be held on November 28. According to assessments recently presented to Israeli officials, alongside increasing involvement in terrorism and incitement, Hamas is trying to build political partnerships with Palestinian factions and movements to expand its power and reach the elections at the head of a bloc that could undermine Fatah's rule in the Palestinian Authority.
At the political level and in the security establishment, Hamas is currently defined as the main rival in the Palestinian arena in the West Bank, and they warn that the organization is investing increasing effort in promoting terrorist infrastructure, directing operatives, and incitement. The difficult economic situation on the ground, according to the assessment, could accelerate the process. The economic distress, the weakness of the Authority's institutions, and the lack of trust in the leadership in Ramallah make it easier for Hamas in its attempts to expand its activity and recruit support.
In the Shin Bet, they estimate that the elections could deeply change the face of the Palestinian Authority. The possibility that Hamas will run officially under its own name is only part of the picture. According to the information discussed in Israel, the organization is working to assemble as broad a coalition as possible with other Palestinian factions and elements in the West Bank, in order to increase its influence - even under the restrictions on its participation.
Following these assessments, the Shin Bet believes that it is necessary to start now to formulate an Israeli strategy for the elections, which will provide an answer to the strengthening of Hamas on the ground and to the possibility that the organization or its allies will achieve significant power in the Palestinian institutions.
"We must not lose focus on this event," it was said in the discussions. "It could take us in undesirable directions."
The issue is expected to reach a discussion at the political level as well.
Since the previous elections, the conditions for running have changed. An amendment to the election law approved this year lowered the electoral threshold to 1% and required every candidate to recognize the PLO as the legitimate and sole representative of the Palestinian people, its political program, and the relevant "international legitimate resolutions."
This requirement makes it difficult for Hamas to run directly under its identity and political concept. Therefore, as mentioned, according to the information discussed in Israel, the organization is working to build a broad bloc with other Palestinian factions and elements ahead of the elections.
If they take place, these will be the first elections for the Legislative Council since January 2006 - the elections in which Hamas defeated Fatah. After the clashes between the two organizations in 2007, the split was created between Hamas rule in the Gaza Strip and the rule of the Authority and Fatah in the West Bank, and the Legislative Council effectively ceased to function. The victory of Hamas in 2006 also stands in the background of the Israeli fear of a significant achievement by the organization or elements identified with it.
