"Hamas is stalling": The trap Israel might fall into in Gaza

What is happening in the Palestinian sector in Gaza and the West Bank? Is Hamas manipulating Israel and the peace plan initiatives? Who is capable of ruling in place of Hamas in the Gaza Strip? And when will there be elections in the Palestinian Authority? In a conversation with Gideon Oko and Amichai Attali on 103FM radio, Avi Issacharoff, an expert on Arab affairs and one of the creators of 'Fauda', analyzed Hamas's response to the peace plan and the recent moves of various Palestinian leaders across the Middle East.

Issacharoff explained what Hamas is doing in front of the peace council representatives: "Hamas is currently playing a very simple game. It is ostensibly aligning itself with the Muslim Brotherhood, Qatar, and Turkey, but also with the American administration when it says it is ready to hand over weapons to the peace council or whoever comes on its behalf. Hamas is playing the game for the first time. This is an extraordinary event of its kind; it is ready to deposit the weapons and keep them in warehouses. Everything is currently just talk in the air. We haven't seen rockets or Kalashnikovs being demonstrated by the armed groups that will come and maintain order."

Regarding the Palestinian force planned to be established in Gaza, he argued: "There will be Palestinian forces whose nature we don't know, whether they are Dahlan's people or former PA officials. I haven't seen such a scenario before my eyes when the war was being conducted in Gaza; I didn't see Hamas surrender, I didn't see Hamas go out to October 7th."

"Right now, Hamas is waiting for Israel to sabotage the move, and then they won't have to disarm. In the meantime, they are playing the game and cooperating with all 15 points. As long as Israel is not willing to cooperate and does not implement it on the ground - they can hold on. While we are talking, they are still controlling Gaza, they have armed men in the streets, they are building up and preparing."

"There are no targeted killings, but even targeted killings are not what will move Hamas from its position. Bibi has a very simple agenda - elections, then elections, and then more elections. He can spread promises that he does not recognize the 15 points for the sake of the Likud primaries and for the benefit of uniting the camp."

He further emphasized: "Bottom line, there might be a retreat here or there - we are talking about entrenchment around the yellow line. Hamas is stalling and enjoys playing on the fact that the Israeli side is sabotaging this whole move, and in the meantime, Israel is taking blow after blow in global public opinion. What is happening in the world and especially in the USA is no less bad than what happened on the battlefield - it is a catastrophe."

Who will replace Hamas? "Dahlan comes from the gut of Gaza, you cannot underestimate this man."

In addition, he identified a promising candidate to take control of Gaza and the fate of the Palestinian people in general into his hands: "Abu Fadi, Dahlan is undoubtedly one of the most promising names in the past of Fatah to succeed Abu Mazen. He was expelled from the territories after Abu Mazen discovered that he was badmouthing him and his children at every possible opportunity. He made sure to mark himself as the heir, and therefore Abu Mazen made sure to mark him as a traitor and expelled him."

"He established himself in the Emirates and became one of the closest advisors to Mohammed bin Zayed, one of the most powerful people economically in the Gulf, and this man probably manages to pull strings. In 2004-2005, the people of this man in the Preventive Security were suspected of being responsible for actual terrorist acts against the Israeli side in Gaza, his deputy became a wanted man. He is ex-Palestinian Authority, ex-Fatah, he calls himself Fatah and is still considered strong in the eyes of those who do not like Abu Mazen."

He added about him: "I don't know how many in Gaza will listen to him, but let's say a third, I cannot be responsible for such numbers. But this man has status, this man comes from the gut of Gaza, he grew up together with Sinwar and Mohammed Deif, he knew the group that was at the top of Hamas's military wing. You cannot underestimate this man, neither his power on the ground nor his economic power from the outside."

"I cannot say who the people at the head of Hamas's military wing are - they are not known, not recognized, they hide their identity."

Furthermore, he discussed the state of Hamas today: "This organization is not at its peak, the organization has taken heavy blows. They have become unknown names, not recognized, names that hide their identity not only from the Israelis but also from the Palestinians themselves. The bottom line for Hamas is that it is surviving."

"Hamas is going a long way. Especially the long leadership abroad, Khalil al-Hayya and others who move between Qatar and Istanbul. They understand that they need to play the game and they are going with the flow. They support the 15 points because the situation on the ground is not great, so there is nothing to lose. There is no need to give excuses to the Israeli side, and the Israeli side is sabotaging itself anyway."

Finally, he addressed the possibility that democratic elections would be held in the Palestinian Authority after many long years and did not express much optimism regarding this: "Just because Abu Mazen talks about there being elections doesn't mean there will be elections. I remember Abu Mazen saying so many times that there will be elections and then we reach the trough and don't drink from it. Again, a lot depends on Israel; the moment Israel says it will allow elections in East Jerusalem, they say they won't allow them. There are no new names here, there are no big surprises, it is more or less the same list. Marwan Barghouti is still the popular man in Fatah, but there are no surprises."