“The Penny Has Dropped”: The US Plan to Squeeze Tehran
The US and regional powers are focusing on economic pressure to bring the Iranian regime to a breaking point. Washington aims to avoid escalation before the midterm elections while maintaining a strict blockade.
Contacts between the USA and Iran and the decision to refrain from a direct attack at this time do not indicate an imminent agreement. Washington and most regional capitals are currently prioritizing the weakening of the Iranian regime through economic means until it reaches a breaking point, which could lead to its downfall or the neutralization of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. This was reported to "Hayom" by a senior political source well-versed in the situation.
According to the source, all sides are currently stalling for time. Iran expects American concessions due to the partial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The US is trying to prevent a rise in oil prices and excessive escalation before the midterm elections, while Gulf states seek to protect their strategic facilities. "The penny has dropped for all the leaders of the region, even in Doha," the source noted. "The current Iranian regime cannot remain in place with a threatening military force. The debate is only about the path and the timetable." Regarding Israel, the source claimed that US President Donald Trump has kept Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu "behind the scenes" for now, but Israel continues to provide logistical and intelligence support and may join with actual military force if necessary.
Contacts Under Denials and Intensifying Siege
Despite denials from Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officials, contacts between the USA and Iran continue, both through intermediaries and direct communication between Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and President Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff. Diplomatic sources report significant gaps preventing a direct meeting, though Pakistan has invited Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf to Islamabad for discussions. Araghchi is also working with Oman to reach an arrangement for monitoring tanker passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
Daily, dozens of vessels cross the strait, transporting about four million barrels of oil. While this is significantly lower than pre-war volumes, it indicates that Iran is struggling to realize its threats to fully block the strait. The US Navy continues to enforce a strict blockade on Iran itself, with traffic from its ports nearly paralyzed. Saudi Arabia, fearing Houthi fire in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, has been forced to route tankers around Africa.
“Survival Economy” and Zarif’s Warning
Inside Iran, the naval blockade is causing a severe economic crisis. Official inflation has reached nearly 90% annually, with real figures for basic commodities being much higher. Severe shortages of gas and fuel have forced authorities to initiate power outages and fuel rationing. Cuts to salaries and pensions are fueling public anger—the very factor Washington hopes will weaken the regime.
Former Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif warned in a recent article that failure to reach an agreement within two months would lead to dangerous internal unrest and the collapse of relations with strategic partners like China and Russia. He admitted that Beijing and Moscow have not become reliable allies and have already found alternatives to Iranian oil. Iranian media increasingly refers to a "survival economy," with households selling personal items and renting out basic work tools. If Washington persists in this policy, further escalation seems inevitable, though the US will attempt to contain it until the November midterm elections.
