American pressure is mounting — Iran threatens with "surprises"

Iran conveyed two different messages to the United States today (Saturday): on one hand, senior officials in Tehran clarified that they are ready to return to talks in an attempt to reach agreements. On the other hand, the Iranian security establishment warned that it possesses new capabilities that will be presented to its enemies "in due time."

Iran's ambassador to Germany, Majid Nili, said that his country is not closing the door on renewing contacts with the United States. According to him, even in the current situation, Tehran continues to examine the possibility of dialogue: "Despite the existing political atmosphere and the pressures, the path to dialogue and communication based on mutual respect still continues." His statement came after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that it is still possible to return relations between the countries to a political track. However, he set a central condition from Iran's perspective — a change in the way the United States conducts itself toward it.

"Returning diplomacy to its track is not impossible," he said. "It depends on the US understanding one simple fact: pressure does not work. The US needs to build trust, speak with respect, recognize our rights, and fulfill obligations."

However, alongside the attempt to present the possibility of returning to talks, a threatening message was also heard from Tehran. The acting Minister of Defense, Brigadier General Majid Ibn al-Reza, claimed that the country's defense industries are developing capabilities that have not yet been revealed to the world. "Everyone, and especially the enemies, should know that they will be exposed to Iran's surprises in due time," he declared. He later added: "We don't need to talk about the surprises now, but Iranian knowledge, Iranian youth, and the things being done in the defense industries will bring, with God's help, good surprises."

The messages come at a time when the United States continues to exert pressure on Iran in two ways simultaneously: military activity in the region and harming its sources of income. American forces have maintained an increased presence in the Middle East since the start of the operation against Iran on February 28. Simultaneously, the US Central Command is working to restrict the movement of vessels to and from Iranian ports. According to CENTCOM, 82 ships have been diverted from their routes so far as part of the activity.

It is possible that the Iranian signal of willingness to return to talks does not necessarily indicate a desire to reach an agreement quickly, but rather an attempt to buy time and trap President Donald Trump in a political trap ahead of the midterm elections in November. In Tehran, they are aware that the continuation of the confrontation, the disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, and the impact on energy prices could weigh on the President and the Republican Party as election day approaches. Commentators have already estimated that Iran may try to prolong the contacts, set conditions, and prevent Trump from achieving a quick political success, in the hope that political pressure within the United States will force him to compromise. On the other hand, there is also the opposite possibility: if the negotiations continue beyond the elections and the Republicans emerge strengthened, Tehran's bargaining power might actually weaken.

As mentioned, the confrontation between the United States and Iran has been going on for about half a year, and recently Washington has expanded the campaign to the economic sphere as well. The US Treasury Department has launched an operation designed to make it difficult for Tehran to bring money into the country, use the international financial system, and bypass the sanctions imposed on it. The impact is already being felt inside Iran. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei admitted that the country is dealing with economic problems, including inflation, unemployment, and rising prices. President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that Iranian exports have fallen by almost 35% following the sanctions and the blockade that the United States is enforcing on the ports.

The crisis also has consequences outside of Iran. According to the UN's International Maritime Organization, at least 6,000 crew members have remained stranded on hundreds of ships in the Persian Gulf. Since the beginning of the war, 19 sailors have been killed and at least 70 attacks against international vessels have been recorded. The importance of the region to the global economy is particularly great, because before the outbreak of the confrontation, about 20% of the oil and natural gas traded in the world passed through the Strait of Hormuz.

Last week, Trump already made it clear that he is not prepared to simply return to the previous understandings with Iran. The memorandum of understanding signed in June was intended to open a 60-day period for broader negotiations, but it fell apart due to disagreements between the parties, among other things regarding the passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz. When asked if the United States is interested in extending the arrangement, Trump replied in the negative and said that Iran "will not make the type of deal that I think is necessary." Later, it was reported that the administration even notified the mediators that it is not interested in returning to the terms of the memorandum and prefers to continue exerting economic pressure until Tehran agrees to terms that are more favorable from Washington's perspective. Therefore, the current Iranian signal of willingness for dialogue comes when the gap between the sides is still large: Tehran seeks to revive the framework of understandings, while Trump is signaling that the old offer is no longer sufficient for him.