The Octopus of Proxies: The Challenge and Opportunity from the Iraqi Direction
While Iran acts to arrange the cards in its favor and tighten its regional grip, a window is now created for a strategic counter-change. This change will require the Iraqi government to choose a side, and perhaps even adopt a much more determined approach against the continued Iranian meddling in its affairs — not only to smooth things over with Saudi Arabia and the US, but first of all for itself.
The winds of war that are still blowing on the axis between Tehran and Washington, alongside the climbing of the threat ladder on both sides, remind us once again of the critical gap between the memorandum of understanding signed a month ago and its meager ability to influence the belligerent course of the Ayatollah regime and the Revolutionary Guards. The geopolitical trap in which the regional campaign currently finds itself illustrates what Israel and the Gulf states understood from the start: any agreement that does not guarantee the neutralization of Iran's ability to threaten with nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, and does not include a holistic solution for cutting off its violent metastases in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen, is like a negligent surgical operation that leaves the cancer of extremism in place.
Proxies as a 'divide and rule' method
Regarding Iran's terror arms, it is enough to look at the growing self-confidence of the Houthis in Yemen and the pro-Iranian militias in Iraq to understand that radical root treatment is required against the regional octopus arms. The boastful conduct of the Houthis, who exploit the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab space and announced a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, alongside continuous drone launches by Shiite militias from Iraq, testify to a cynical use by Tehran of its proxies to create a 'divide and rule' strategy. Iran exploits President Donald Trump's immediate economic interest in solving the Hormuz crisis, while acting to mend the regional choking ring created by its proxies.
This morning, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that it had attacked, in cooperation with Saudi forces, targets of the militias in Iraq. This attack followed a drone strike from Iraqi territory towards Saudi Arabia, which caused deep political embarrassment for Baghdad. The Saudi anger was reflected in a sharp condemnation, in which the kingdom called on Iraq to take immediate steps to ensure such attacks do not recur. This triggered a quick Iraqi investigation to prevent a diplomatic crisis before the new Iraqi Prime Minister's visit to the kingdom.
The opportunity from Iraq
Precisely from this reality in Iraq, a golden opportunity now lies for a combined pincer movement. The launch attacks, particularly towards Saudi Arabia, may be an opportunity for applying massive combined pressure from Washington and the Gulf states on the authorities in Baghdad to shift gears in dealing with the pro-Iranian militias. A central link is the new Prime Minister of Iraq, Ali al-Zaidi. His mediation efforts between the US and Iran stem from his desire to get closer to the Trump administration and signal his strategic value, especially when the US demand to disarm the pro-Iranian militias stands in the background.
It is important to note that these militias operate under an umbrella organization called 'Al-Hashd al-Shaabi' ('Popular Mobilization'), which received legal status and budgets from the Iraqi state in 2016. Shiite dominance in post-Saddam Iraq led to an extensive grip of the militias on the state. However, in recent years, internal criticism has been growing. Such criticism is voiced by the camp of Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr and the supreme Shiite authority, Ayatollah Ali Sistani, who support strengthening state institutions and subordinating weapons to them.
The Gulf carrot and stick
Gulf states, led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, understand that a sovereign, stable, and free-from-Iranian-shackles Iraq is a security interest of the highest order. The solution lies in close cooperation with the American administration, placing before Baghdad a clear equation:
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The stick: An unequivocal economic and political price tag. It must be made clear that the continued rampage of the militias means sanctions, political isolation, and a halt to regional investments.
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The carrot: Al-Zaidi is a banker who understands the language of numbers. Saudi Arabia and the UAE can offer him a financial lifeline in the form of large-scale economic incentives capable of replacing the paralyzing dependence on Tehran.
Such coordinated pressure will not only force Iraq to act decisively against the rogue militias, but may bring Baghdad closer to the embrace of the regional pragmatic axis. While Iran acts to arrange the cards in its favor, a window is now created for a strategic counter-change. This will require the Iraqi government to choose a side and adopt a much more determined approach against Iranian meddling — not only for the sake of its relations with the US and Saudi Arabia, but first of all for itself.
The author is a former department head at the NSC and an expert on Middle East and African affairs.
