Competition for flights to New York is growing: what to expect regarding prices

If there are no last-minute changes, the two American aviation giants, Delta and United, are expected to return to Israel on 6.9 and 8.9, expanding the flight market to New York, one of the most sought-after destinations for Israelis. In addition, Israir is expected to start flights to the destination on 19.10, and American Airlines has marked a target return date for the end of March 2027.

For a long time, the route was controlled almost exclusively by El Al, with only Arkia providing slight competition. There were many claims that the lack of competition caused a rise in prices for flights to New York and North America in general. However, opening the market will not cause flight prices to drop dramatically. The return of Delta and United and the expected entry of Israir will not necessarily create an immediate price drop, but they will certainly return welcome competition to the route, says Nir Mazor, VP of Aviation Relations.

"On flexible dates and in the shoulder seasons, we will see more tickets in the 800–1,000 dollar range, while during holidays and peak periods, prices will remain high as we have become accustomed to them," Mazor explains. New York is a destination with huge demand, and finally, there is a supply that approaches that demand.

Gil Hahn, CEO of Eshet Tours, offers a slightly more optimistic forecast: the demand for flights to the USA is expected to remain high. Alongside this, jet fuel and oil prices are currently tens of percent higher compared to the same period last year, making flight costs more expensive. "It must be remembered that not all American companies have returned to Israel yet, and some of those already operating here have not yet returned to their full flight frequency. As activity continues to expand, seats will be added and competition will strengthen," he adds. We estimate that we will see a significant impact on prices after the elections in November, when the increase in supply meets a seasonal decline in demand.

Dr. Uzi Freund-Feinstein, an aviation expert at Kinneret Academic College, explains why prices are not expected to drop drastically and quickly: the extent of the price drop depends not only on the number of players but also on the scope of activity and the size of the planes. "Initially, American companies are expected to offer a limited number of destinations and frequencies due to the winter season, which is relatively weak, and the need for companies to ensure the Israeli market is stable enough. I estimate that only later, most likely next summer, will the supply of seats and flights increase, and prices will drop more."

Another issue affecting market prices is passenger trust. Those who purchased from foreign companies had their flights cancelled due to the security situation and could not fly due to a shortage of seats on El Al. Foreign companies and Israir will need to offer competitive prices to attract passengers. El Al is expected to respond with price drops to stop the leakage of passengers, but the reduction will be limited since demand remains very high even in winter.

How much will flights to New York cost?

Eshet Tours checked flight prices (including a suitcase) on three different dates:

1. October (15–23.10): El Al: 1,936 dollars, Arkia: 2,098 dollars, United: 2,100 dollars, Delta: 2,600 dollars.

2. November (11–19.11): Arkia: 1,348 dollars, Delta: 1,350 dollars, El Al: 1,400 dollars, United: 1,950 dollars.

3. December (25.12–3.1.27): Delta: 945 dollars, El Al: 1,195 dollars, Arkia: 1,498 dollars, United: 1,950 dollars.