"The American Concession", the Iranian Threat - and the Wait for Mojtaba: "Communication with him is difficult"

After the lifting of American sanctions against two aircraft and three airlines linked to the IRGC, and in the shadow of the Iranian claim of "understandings" in contacts between it and Oman regarding how to open the Strait of Hormuz, a source in the Gulf said this evening (Wednesday) that "the concession has already been made regarding some control over Hormuz". In a conversation with the Reuters news agency, another source said that not all details have been completed yet regarding the "definition of control" in the strait. The AP news agency reported simultaneously that Iran and Oman have finished preparing the draft agreement, which will allow the reopening of the strait. According to the report, which relied on two sources in the Gulf, the parties are now waiting for the final approval of Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. However, Iranian state television reported this evening that President Masoud Pezeshkian said that dealing with Khamenei is "very difficult" at the moment.

The sources who spoke with AP, and were briefed on the negotiations, presented the potential deal as a temporary solution to the conflict over the strait, and noted that it would pave the way for the resumption of negotiations between Iran and the US on the nuclear program. They also said that the possible agreement includes the entry of ships into the Persian Gulf through a route under Iranian control and exit through a route under Omani control. According to the sources, "service fees" will be collected from the ships that will pass through the routes. The contacts are taking place against the backdrop of the constant fear of the renewal of the war if they fail, and it is evident that countries in the Gulf hope to prevent this for fear that Iran will attack their sensitive oil and energy facilities.

This evening, Reuters reported, citing five sources familiar with the details, that Iran has "warned" Gulf countries that any renewed American attack on its territory will lead to a response that will be directed against "critical energy infrastructure throughout the region". According to the sources, Iran is trying to raise the price of renewing the war through the threat to Washington's allies in the region. The sources noted that the Iranian threat was conveyed after Trump threatened to attack energy and infrastructure facilities in Iran on July 28, a threat from which he eventually retreated - among other things following Saudi pressure that included a phone call with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

US President Donald Trump insisted that a deal on opening the Strait of Hormuz is expected very soon, perhaps as early as today, after reports said he demanded that the deal be completed yesterday - but in the meantime there has been no announcement, and in the afternoon CNN reported that it might wait until Friday. A senior source from the Gulf region told the American network that there is a "50-50" chance that the deal will be reached on Friday. At the center of the contacts, as mentioned, is a temporary agreement to open Hormuz in a format that will effectively accept at least some of Iran's demands for control over traffic in the strait, which is the oil artery of the global economy, as part of its refusal to give up the strategic leverage it achieved during the war with its blocking.

The talks on how to manage the strait within the framework of the temporary agreement are officially held only between Iran and its neighbor on the shores of the strait, Oman, but in practice the US is also involved in them. The source who spoke with CNN said that the Iranian delegation in the talks does not include the "voice" of the IRGC, the most powerful military force in Iran that now effectively controls decision-making in the Ayatollah regime. According to the source, the IRGC will be required to give final approval to any agreement reached. Trump himself provided a slightly similar timetable this morning, after reports said he demanded that the agreement be reached yesterday: "We will know within 48 hours. Things are progressing nicely". Before that, he said last night in an interview with "Fox News" that "the strait will open soon, or they (Iran) will be hit hard and then it will open". He claimed that if Iran leaves the talks, "they will be hit very hard".

An Iranian official addressed the negotiations on an agreement and told the Qatari network "Al Jazeera" that "only one or two issues remain unresolved before an agreement can be reached". According to him, these issues are "solvable". He concluded that "any closing or reopening of the Strait of Hormuz depends on any action that Washington will take". This evening, the Iranian Foreign Ministry announced that "the geographical characteristics of the routes in the Strait of Hormuz have been agreed upon between Iran and Oman". The ministry spokesman said that "a joint statement by Iran and Oman is in the final stages of drafting - if a 'certain third party' does not interfere". He qualified and added: "The agreement itself does not mean that the strait is safe". According to reports, Iran continues to insist that in any arrangement it will continue to control the strait.

Sources in the US told the "Wall Street Journal" that Washington expects an agreement similar to the one already reached within the framework of the memorandum of understanding signed in June. As part of the agreement, a ceasefire will first be achieved (which also included the opening of Hormuz in the memorandum) - and then negotiations will take place on the "heavy" issues such as the nuclear program. Accordingly, an Iranian source defined as "security-political" told the network "Al-Mayadeen", which is identified with Hezbollah, that "the Iranian-Omani negotiations regarding the joint arrangements for managing Hormuz have reached important stages. One of the required arrangements is the registration of every entry or exit through the strait in a special system. Iran believes that this step allows it to impose full control over shipping and contributes to preventing incidents in the strait".

Until the war, the passage through the Strait of Hormuz was completely free, and a fifth of the global oil and gas consumption passed through it, in accordance with its definition as an international shipping route. Since Iran realized its threats and blocked it as part of the war, and began attacking vessels that tried to cross in the area, it has been claiming ownership of it and insisting on receiving payment of transit fees from every ship that crosses. To bypass the dispute, the memorandum was intentionally drafted in a vague manner, and it was determined that the strait would be temporarily opened for 60 days without a payment demand, and that Iran and Oman would negotiate on how to manage it in the future. The agreement collapsed when Iran continued to attack ships that crossed the strait in its southern route, the one closer to Oman - which does not demand payment from ships.

Meanwhile, the Houthis, Iran's proxies in Yemen, announced this evening that they attacked the Saudi oil tanker Daisy in the Gulf of Aden using a ballistic missile. "The operation achieved its goal. The ship was damaged and was forced to change its route and turn back," the Houthis said. "This attack is carried out as part of enforcing the maritime shipping ban on the Saudi enemy, in accordance with the siege-for-siege equation."