The mandate map is changing: "Gadi Eisenkot is the big winner"

Dr. Menachem Lazar, CEO of Lazar Research, addressed the latest trends in the polls, the establishment of new parties, and their potential impact on the balance of power between the blocks this morning (Thursday) in an interview with 103FM radio. According to him, despite the changes within the parties, the picture of the blocks remains relatively stable at this stage.

Lazar noted that "until now, the map of the polls is generally quite static." According to him, "we are talking about approximately 50 mandates for the coalition block, 59-60 for the opposition block, and about 10 mandates for the Arab parties." He explained that the main changes are occurring within the blocks themselves and not through a significant transfer of votes from one side to the other.

He then addressed the possibility that Gilad Erdan and Yuli Edelstein would establish a new party. "They are aiming at disappointed Likud voters and the soft right, at people who might stay home during the elections," he said. "I am not sure that this will transfer votes from side to side. It might perhaps strengthen [a side] slightly, depending on which side they go to, and the question is whether they will pass the electoral threshold and by how much."

Afterward, he addressed reports regarding the possibility that Yoav Segalovitz would join Ra'am and estimated that such a move could have a significant impact on the voter turnout in Arab society. "When a reinforcement player like Yoav Segalovitz enters, it can greatly increase the percentage of turnout in the Arab sector and, as a result, the number of mandates that Ra'am will receive," he said. However, he added that it is still unclear how such a move will affect the overall balance of power and the ability of the opposition block to reach 61 mandates.

He then addressed the decline in the power of the "Bechad" party in the polls and argued that the one who has benefited from it more than anyone is Gadi Eisenkot. "Before the union of Bennett and Lapid, there was a situation of 24 mandates for Bennett against 24 for Likud and Eisenkot with 12 mandates. Today, 'Bechad' has dropped from the area of 30 mandates to 15 in our polls, and even to 13 in other polls. The one who hit the jackpot from this deterioration is Gadi Eisenkot, who jumped by almost the same mandates that were lost and is reaching 23 mandates. Has 'Bechad' reached the bottom? It is hard to say," he said.

At the end of the interview, Lazar also addressed the situation of Shas in the polls. According to him, the party is in a trend of weakening because it is struggling to satisfy its two voter bases. "Shas is composed of two populations - the Sephardic ultra-Orthodox public and the Sephardic traditional public - and both are unhappy. The ultra-Orthodox public is unhappy that it did not succeed in advancing a conscription law, and the traditional public is angry at the very attempt to do so. It is being harmed by both worlds, and we see this also in the mandate numbers," he concluded.