First-Time Israeli Voters Shape a Fractured Political Landscape Ahead of Elections

Israel's youngest voters, aged 18 to 22, are heading to the Knesset ballot box for the very first time. Born around the time the Second Intifada waned and raised in a relatively quiet era, their formative years were abruptly upended by the COVID-19 pandemic, ongoing political chaos, and the deep trauma of the October 7 attacks. Dismissed by some as the superficial "TikTok generation," these young Israelis—many of whom have served in uniform—have shouldered the immense burden of defending the nation during its darkest hour. Now, they are approaching the polls not as naive youths, but as a sober-minded generation shaped by historic crises.

A poll conducted by Dialog for Ynet and Yedioth Ahronoth among 543 young Israelis reveals that this demographic slices through the traditional political map quite differently than their parents. While turnout intentions are relatively high—67% of respondents are certain they will vote, and 19% think they will—party loyalties are heavily fractured. No single party reaches the 10% threshold in this cohort, with preferences scattered widely across the political spectrum.

Voting Intentions and Party Preferences

The survey highlights a tight race among several factions. Naftali Bennett's new political vehicle leading the joint electoral list "Be-yachad" edges ahead slightly with roughly 9% of the vote, translating to an estimated 16 mandates. Trailing closely behind are "Otzma Yehudit", "Yashar!", and "Religious Zionism", each capturing around 8% to 9% of support. Meanwhile, traditional powerhouses like "Likud" secure comparable figures, while parties such as "Yisrael Beytenu", "The Democrats", and "United Torah Judaism" hover around 5%.

Interestingly, the newly formed "Haredi Public" party manages to cross the electoral threshold among young voters, capturing just over 3% of the demographic's backing—roughly 5 mandates—signaling potential exhaustion among youth with the old ultra-Orthodox leadership models. Conversely, "Shas" and "Ra'am" experience steep drops among this younger cohort, failing to clear the threshold in the simulated distribution.

"I want reassurance that I can return to live in my home quietly without worrying that something like this will happen again in a few years," says 18-year-old Eilai Boutelman, a Nir Oz evacuee who survived the October 7 atrocities.

Core Issues Driving the Youth

Security policy and the high cost of living emerge as the twin pillars guiding young voters' decisions, cited by 27% and 25% of respondents respectively. However, stark divides persist along demographic lines. Among religious youth, security policy dominates concerns at 50%, whereas secular youth place greater emphasis on ultra-Orthodox military conscription and equality in the burden (26%), as well as the investigation into the October 7 intelligence failures (22%).

For many young Israelis, the ballot is a deeply personal reckoning. Gabriela Trouan, a 20-year-old philosophy and economics student at Tel Aviv University whose two uncles were murdered in Kibbutz Holit on October 7, expresses profound anxiety about the nation's trajectory. "The government is responsible for my uncles being murdered," she says, aligning her vote with "The Democrats" out of a desire for structural reform, rebuilding international legitimacy, and shifting away from endless military escalation toward a viable diplomatic horizon.

Diverse Voices Across Society

From settlements in the West Bank to Arab towns in the Galilee, the political mosaic of first-time voters reflects conflicting visions for the future. Hadar Froehlich, an 18-year-old resident of Beit El, plans to vote for the "Religious Zionism" faction, emphasizing that settlement expansion remains paramount for national security and sovereignty. On the other end of the spectrum, Basil Aghbariya, an 18-year-old activist from Umm al-Fahm, intends to vote for the "Hadash-Ta'al" joint list, prioritizing the eradication of crime in Arab society, combating systemic discrimination, and demanding true civil equality.