Between Iran and the ballot box: Trump will do everything to stall
Ahead of the US midterm elections, Donald Trump is attempting to avoid further entanglement with Iran to protect his party's majority in Congress. Meanwhile, Tehran believes that political and economic pressures will constrain the president, while anti-Israel sentiment continues to rise within the Democratic Party.
Ahead of the US midterm elections, President Donald Trump is debating how to act regarding Iran to avoid losing control of the House and the Senate. Yaki Dayan, former Israeli consul in Los Angeles, was interviewed this morning on 103fm radio, where he analyzed the political factors limiting Trump's options. The discussion also touched upon preparations for Benjamin Netanyahu's visit to the UN General Assembly in September.
"Trump is thinking like a politician now," Dayan noted. "He entered the campaign against Iran with the feeling that it would be a 'walk in the park,' but he has realized it is much more complicated and prolonged than that."
"He is approaching the midterm elections, which will decide whether Republicans retain control of the House and the Senate. From his perspective, losing both chambers would be a significant blow. It would trigger numerous investigations into his economic affairs and impeachment attempts. He wants to avoid that headache, so he is playing for time," Dayan explained.
"He will do his maximum to stall. It is not certain he will succeed, as the Iranians are fully aware of Trump's constraints and schedules. As Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Kane has suggested, a ground invasion is perhaps the most unpopular option in the US due to the enormous potential for entanglement. Militarily, he lacks extraordinary alternatives, so he will try to drag it out," he added.
Interim agreements and economic pressure
"We are likely heading toward another interim agreement on top of the previous catastrophic one," Dayan continued. He noted that if oil prices remain stable, Republicans might manage to retain one of the chambers, reducing the political price Trump would have to pay.
Regarding the president's approval ratings, Dayan said, "The American public wants to pay no more than 4 dollars for a gallon of gas. Therefore, Trump has no motivation to renew the war right now. Ultimately, he will have to deal with the nuclear issue, but any agreement on the Strait of Hormuz will likely involve significant compromises from the American side."
Dayan claimed that while the US naval blockade of Hormuz is costly, the Iranians have a specific assessment of Trump: "They likely believe, with some justification, that Trump lacks the patience and stamina to maintain this tough economic blockade. The current blockade is actually quite effective, as Iran has not sent out a single oil tanker since July 12 and has stopped drilling at Kharg. The question is how long Trump will hold out."
Anti-Israel trends in the Democratic Party
Referring to Netanyahu's expected visit to New York in September, Dayan highlighted the rising anti-Israel sentiment in the US: "We will see more attacks from Mohammed Dahlan. In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed, a vocal critic of Israel, won the primaries. His key argument was that every dollar going to Israel is a dollar lost in Michigan."
"This is becoming a central issue, and Mohammed Dahlan is effectively becoming a focal point within the Democratic Party. We see the direction in which the party is drifting. What will happen in September? Benjamin Netanyahu will speak at the UN, and Mohammed Dahlan will issue statements against him; both will seek to gain political capital from the exchange. What is more worrying is the direction of American politics on both the right and the left, where a shift is uniting antisemites and Israel-haters," Dayan concluded.
