Ex-Egyptian Spy Chief Warned Netanyahu of Gaza Explosion Prior to October 7
A report reveals former Egyptian intelligence chief Abbas Kamel warned Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of a Gaza escalation weeks before October 7. Israeli officials dispute the claims as intelligence oversight questions emerge.
Recent reports regarding an Egyptian warning about an impending explosion in Gaza prior to the October 7 massacre have sparked significant public debate. At the center of this controversy is Abbas Kamel, the former head of Egypt's General Intelligence Service.
Kamel served as the chief of staff to Abdel Fattah el-Sisi when the latter was commander-in-chief of the Egyptian military. Sisi, who was promoted to defense minister during the Muslim Brotherhood's rule, led a military coup against the Islamist movement in 2013. Following his official election as president in 2014, Kamel was reappointed as his chief of staff, effectively making him one of Sisi's closest confidants.
Consequently, in the summer of 2018, Kamel was appointed head of Egypt's General Intelligence Service, one of the most sensitive positions in the country, dealing with regional security files. In the years leading up to the October 7 massacre, Kamel spearheaded Egypt's mediation efforts between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, meeting several times with Hamas leader in the Strip, Yahya Sinwar.
Kamel's appointment to lead the intelligence agency was not conventional. He was previously an armor corps officer who completed courses and specializations in Western nations. His intelligence experience primarily included serving as an assistant military attaché in the Czech Republic and holding roles within the military attachés' intelligence department, where he also served as department head.
In other words, he did not hold senior positions within the domestic agency's hierarchy, such as deputy director, and was parachuted into the top role. His appointment was driven largely by his profound trust-based relationship with Sisi.
In October 2024, roughly a year into the war in Gaza, Kamel was replaced after six years in office. Hassan Mahmoud Rashad, a senior officer originating from within the General Intelligence Service, succeeded him, while Kamel was appointed as a special presidential advisor.
Three Warnings from Cairo
According to a report published by The Atlantic, Kamel visited Israel on September 26, 2023, and warned Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of an imminent explosion in the Gaza Strip. Citing official sources from Israel, the United States, Arab states, and Europe, the report stated that Kamel cautioned that the terrorist organization Hamas appeared to be preparing for a large-scale offensive.
These sources, according to the investigation, were briefed on Kamel's visit after the October 7 massacre occurred. An Israeli official told The Atlantic that Kamel advised Netanyahu to grant economic concessions to Hamas in order to avert a major confrontation. According to the official, the message delivered by the Egyptian intelligence chief at the time was, "If you do not change course, Gaza will blow up in your faces."
However, the report noted that "Kamel did not provide Israeli officials with a specific date or detailed information regarding what turned out to be a multi-front assault on Israel less than two weeks later on October 7." It was also noted that the exact details of whom he met remain unclear. According to The Atlantic, airport logs show Kamel's Egyptian aircraft remained in Israel for 67 minutes before flying back to Cairo, a flight path confirmed by flight-tracking applications.
The report raised open questions regarding how Israeli officials handled the Egyptian warning. Officials from seven different countries told the magazine that Kamel's visit should have triggered red alarms at the highest levels of the Israeli leadership. Furthermore, according to his public schedule, Netanyahu attended a classified briefing following the Yom Kippur War memorial ceremony on September 26, and shortly thereafter approved several economic relaxations for Hamas.
According to the sources, the mere presence of the Egyptian intelligence chief in Israel was supposed to convey extreme urgency. "The messenger was the message," a former Israeli senior official stated. "There is no way Israeli brass met with the Egyptian intelligence head and Bibi was not aware of it."
In the days following the outbreak of the war, the Prime Minister's Office denied receiving any direct or indirect warnings from Egypt concerning the situation in Gaza. Spokespersons for both Netanyahu and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi declined to respond to inquiries from The Atlantic. Tzachi Hanegbi, who served as head of the National Security Council at the time, denied to the magazine that Kamel's visit ever took place or that any Egyptian warning was issued.
According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, Kamel also telephoned Netanyahu in early October 2023, just days prior to the attack, to deliver a third warning regarding signs of an impending assault from Gaza. Citing Arab government sources, the newspaper reported that Kamel "grew increasingly anxious" because two previous Egyptian warnings, in June and September, had been ignored by Israel. One source stated that the Egyptians continued issuing warnings up to 48 hours before the attack, though the warnings did not specify the exact timing or scope. Netanyahu's office did not respond to the newspaper's inquiries and had previously denied that any phone conversations took place between the prime minister and Kamel in the months leading up to October 7.
