Understandings emerging: Hamas may begin handing over weapons in two weeks

First publication: According to sources, in recent days agreements are emerging regarding the future of the Gaza Strip. The agreements have not yet been signed, have not yet been finalized, and it is unclear if they will indeed ripen into actual implementation.

According to sources I have spoken with in recent days and weeks, one of the possibilities currently on the table is that Hamas will begin, within about two weeks, the handover of heavy and light weapons and tunnel locations. However, it must be emphasized that this is a very sensitive stage of the contacts, and there are still significant question marks surrounding the feasibility of the move, the manner of its execution, and the ability to verify that Hamas will indeed meet its commitments.

According to the sources, the contacts are being conducted around a broader outline that includes the gradual demilitarization of the Gaza Strip, including the issue of light weapons, heavy weapons, and tunnel infrastructure. In parallel, the issue of ending Hamas's governing involvement in the Strip is also being examined, and the gaps between the sides may still affect the progress of the outline.

According to the emerging understandings, if the outline does indeed progress, it is expected to be based on a phased mechanism of reciprocal steps, such that every step by Israel will be conditional on a step by Hamas. The sources emphasize that the arrangement is not supposed to be based on trust in the terrorist organization, but on mechanisms of supervision, enforcement, and control, which are still in the stages of formulation.

Within the framework of the roadmap being examined, Hamas is supposed to cease military activity, and subsequently, technical mechanisms will be closed that will allow the start of the process of full and absolute demilitarization. However, as mentioned, there is no signing of an agreement at this stage, and there is no certainty that the schedules being discussed will indeed be realized.

Sources estimate that the very possibility that Hamas will begin handing over weapons within a short period of time is a very significant positive development.

Bottom line, understandings are emerging that may lead to the start of weapons handovers by Hamas within about two weeks, but at this stage, it is only a possibility. Until an official agreement is signed and until actual execution begins on the ground, this move should be treated with great caution.